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Mansi Kulkarni's avatar

The gap between mining share (71%) and refining share (91%) is the real story here, and it's the same pattern chips followed — raw material access matters far less than who controls the specific industrial capability to turn it into something usable. The US and Japan actually invented rare earth magnet production last century and let the capability migrate to China anyway, because building it was expensive and unprofitable in the short term. That's a strategic choice with a decades-long bill attached, not bad luck. Leverage built this way is durable precisely because it was never really about the raw resource, it was about who kept investing in the unglamorous, low-margin refining infrastructure everyone else abandoned.

Rare Earths Investor's avatar

Hopefully we are getting away from the media-generated hype re., the US vs China for the number one spot in the RE sector. China isn't going to budge. However, there's certainly competition this decade for the US in terms of building out within-border (and friendly) RE chains that are responsive to the offtake needs of N. American endline manufacture. Nor have we heard publicly of new niche RE chains (e.g., MP, Energy Fuels, USARE, REalloys and Lynas) complaining of growth restriction due to lack of workforce access. Lynas, yes recently in terms of equipment cost and we saw legal action between the likes of MP, Ramaco and USARE over employee moves, but severe shortage not apparently for these RE prime movers. This issue may become more impactful for those few RE wannabees that might still emerge the next decade but those will be very few, IOHO. GLTA Rare Earths Investor (REI). Thanks for the article.

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