Isn't this a symmetric response to PRC, rather than an asymmetric response? The PRC will be deploying tens of thousands of drones in the air, on the surface and below the surface. They are the country best prepared for massed drone warfare. How is ROC supposed to win an attritional clash of drones?
Only problem is that the CCP will never tolerate any competition or independence to their authority. Hong Kong knows this all too well. So a lease on a base anywhere in Taiwan is a no go, diplomatically or strategically.
The Taiwanese leadership is faced with the same dire fate as Ukraine. Chinese leaders will have been paying very close attention to how Ukraine’s USF and Russia’s Rubicon operate. They will use the best practices of both.
And there is a key piece missing from the shopping list: EW systems. China will not be able to make as massive use of fibre-optics as Russia has, as the distances are too great going across open water. So satellite connections and other RF signals will become the drone’s Achilles’ Heel. A series of EW Jammers on land, and possibly at sea would make Chinese drone swarms more difficult to manage, if not impossible. Of course, semi ‘AI brains’ using preprogrammed flight paths will help. But that level of sophistication as a ways off for now.
Still, Taiwanese citizens will speak up and prepare. It’s their lives on the line. From some articles I’ve read here, the younger generations don’t seem to have any fear of occupation. I guess they haven’t heard about the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The old scores with the Kumintang have not been forgotten.
Destroying the thing you are trying to control. The CCP had already killed the Hong King goose that laid golden eggs.
I’ve been there in 2013 and the scale of the port facilites was amazing, and the energy of the place was more amazing.
However, the political take over was begun long before China took possession from Britain: the port of Hong King which used to see almost all of the export traffic from the factories in Guangdong, Fujian and Guangxi, was sidelined by new port facilities in cities like Shanghai. First, starve the democratic government for revenue.
Next, find people willing to ‘work’ with the mainland officials. Carrie Lam was the most compliant, using the police to suppress pro-democracy supporters, and allowing the CCP secret police to take over law enforcement. She may not have been a Maoist believer, but the voice of the 6 million people living in Hong Kong were effectively silenced. Criminal show trials and prison sentences replaced the machine guns of Tiananmen Square.
In the end, Hong Kong is still there, but a shadow of its former self. It is for almost all purposes destroyed. There are more and more mainlanders there, buying up real estate and businesses. Most of the character of Hong Kong will die off as the people who grew up before 1997 pass away.
Taiwan under the CCP will be somewhere between those two. To be able to destroy a thing is to control a thing. The fate I see for Taiwan is to be reduced to a theme park to keep the wealthy mainlanders entertained, with industry stripped away to prevent technology and people from being leaked to the rest if the world.
Edward N Luttwak : would be grateful for a dialogue: eluttwak@gmail.com. Tel 301 656 1972
Isn't this a symmetric response to PRC, rather than an asymmetric response? The PRC will be deploying tens of thousands of drones in the air, on the surface and below the surface. They are the country best prepared for massed drone warfare. How is ROC supposed to win an attritional clash of drones?
MINES, DECOYS, GANGS
The wargame seemed to have some notable omissions: 1) Naval mines 2) Advanced decoys to protect important assets.
Also Beijing has cultivated crime gangs, to strategically create societal chaos and weaken morale. They are potential national security threats.
I feel like the smart move diplomatically would be for China to offer recognition and normal diplomatic relations in exchange for
- 100 year Leases on a Taiwanese Navy base. Maybe Tsoying. And an air base.
- An agreement that no non-China nation can stations troops or intelligence infrastructure on Taiwan.
Win-Win
Only problem is that the CCP will never tolerate any competition or independence to their authority. Hong Kong knows this all too well. So a lease on a base anywhere in Taiwan is a no go, diplomatically or strategically.
The Taiwanese leadership is faced with the same dire fate as Ukraine. Chinese leaders will have been paying very close attention to how Ukraine’s USF and Russia’s Rubicon operate. They will use the best practices of both.
And there is a key piece missing from the shopping list: EW systems. China will not be able to make as massive use of fibre-optics as Russia has, as the distances are too great going across open water. So satellite connections and other RF signals will become the drone’s Achilles’ Heel. A series of EW Jammers on land, and possibly at sea would make Chinese drone swarms more difficult to manage, if not impossible. Of course, semi ‘AI brains’ using preprogrammed flight paths will help. But that level of sophistication as a ways off for now.
Still, Taiwanese citizens will speak up and prepare. It’s their lives on the line. From some articles I’ve read here, the younger generations don’t seem to have any fear of occupation. I guess they haven’t heard about the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The old scores with the Kumintang have not been forgotten.
Another lesson from Hong Kong - you can have it all without launching a bloody invasion that destroys the exact thing you’re trying to control.
Destroying the thing you are trying to control. The CCP had already killed the Hong King goose that laid golden eggs.
I’ve been there in 2013 and the scale of the port facilites was amazing, and the energy of the place was more amazing.
However, the political take over was begun long before China took possession from Britain: the port of Hong King which used to see almost all of the export traffic from the factories in Guangdong, Fujian and Guangxi, was sidelined by new port facilities in cities like Shanghai. First, starve the democratic government for revenue.
Next, find people willing to ‘work’ with the mainland officials. Carrie Lam was the most compliant, using the police to suppress pro-democracy supporters, and allowing the CCP secret police to take over law enforcement. She may not have been a Maoist believer, but the voice of the 6 million people living in Hong Kong were effectively silenced. Criminal show trials and prison sentences replaced the machine guns of Tiananmen Square.
In the end, Hong Kong is still there, but a shadow of its former self. It is for almost all purposes destroyed. There are more and more mainlanders there, buying up real estate and businesses. Most of the character of Hong Kong will die off as the people who grew up before 1997 pass away.
Taiwan under the CCP will be somewhere between those two. To be able to destroy a thing is to control a thing. The fate I see for Taiwan is to be reduced to a theme park to keep the wealthy mainlanders entertained, with industry stripped away to prevent technology and people from being leaked to the rest if the world.
Is Hong Kong destroyed? If so I must have missed that.