Isn't this a symmetric response to PRC, rather than an asymmetric response? The PRC will be deploying tens of thousands of drones in the air, on the surface and below the surface. They are the country best prepared for massed drone warfare. How is ROC supposed to win an attritional clash of drones?
Only problem is that the CCP will never tolerate any competition or independence to their authority. Hong Kong knows this all too well. So a lease on a base anywhere in Taiwan is a no go, diplomatically or strategically.
The Taiwanese leadership is faced with the same dire fate as Ukraine. Chinese leaders will have been paying very close attention to how Ukraine’s USF and Russia’s Rubicon operate. They will use the best practices of both.
And there is a key piece missing from the shopping list: EW systems. China will not be able to make as massive use of fibre-optics as Russia has, as the distances are too great going across open water. So satellite connections and other RF signals will become the drone’s Achilles’ Heel. A series of EW Jammers on land, and possibly at sea would make Chinese drone swarms more difficult to manage, if not impossible. Of course, semi ‘AI brains’ using preprogrammed flight paths will help. But that level of sophistication as a ways off for now.
Still, Taiwanese citizens will speak up and prepare. It’s their lives on the line. From some articles I’ve read here, the younger generations don’t seem to have any fear of occupation. I guess they haven’t heard about the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The old scores with the Kumintang have not been forgotten.
Edward N Luttwak : would be grateful for a dialogue: eluttwak@gmail.com. Tel 301 656 1972
Isn't this a symmetric response to PRC, rather than an asymmetric response? The PRC will be deploying tens of thousands of drones in the air, on the surface and below the surface. They are the country best prepared for massed drone warfare. How is ROC supposed to win an attritional clash of drones?
I feel like the smart move diplomatically would be for China to offer recognition and normal diplomatic relations in exchange for
- 100 year Leases on a Taiwanese Navy base. Maybe Tsoying. And an air base.
- An agreement that no non-China nation can stations troops or intelligence infrastructure on Taiwan.
Win-Win
Only problem is that the CCP will never tolerate any competition or independence to their authority. Hong Kong knows this all too well. So a lease on a base anywhere in Taiwan is a no go, diplomatically or strategically.
The Taiwanese leadership is faced with the same dire fate as Ukraine. Chinese leaders will have been paying very close attention to how Ukraine’s USF and Russia’s Rubicon operate. They will use the best practices of both.
And there is a key piece missing from the shopping list: EW systems. China will not be able to make as massive use of fibre-optics as Russia has, as the distances are too great going across open water. So satellite connections and other RF signals will become the drone’s Achilles’ Heel. A series of EW Jammers on land, and possibly at sea would make Chinese drone swarms more difficult to manage, if not impossible. Of course, semi ‘AI brains’ using preprogrammed flight paths will help. But that level of sophistication as a ways off for now.
Still, Taiwanese citizens will speak up and prepare. It’s their lives on the line. From some articles I’ve read here, the younger generations don’t seem to have any fear of occupation. I guess they haven’t heard about the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The old scores with the Kumintang have not been forgotten.
Another lesson from Hong Kong - you can have it all without launching a bloody invasion that destroys the exact thing you’re trying to control.