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Leon Liao's avatar

The deeper irony is that tighter access control may not eliminate demand. It may simply professionalize the gray market around that demand.

If Chinese developers, researchers, and companies still want Claude, but the official channel is blocked or unstable, the market will not disappear. It will reroute. The result is not necessarily less access, but less visible access: more intermediaries, weaker accountability, more data leakage, and a larger incentive to monetize logs.

This is why the problem is bigger than China or Claude. AI access is becoming a political economy of channels. Whoever controls the model matters. But whoever controls the routing layer, payment layer, identity layer, and user logs may matter almost as much.

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