How to Lose a Tech War
Xi couldn't be happier with student deportations
Of all the policies Trump has rolled out, the two I’m most worried will have irreversible consequences for long term national power are undermining our alliance structure and the attractiveness of the country for high end international talent.
Angela Shen (ChinaTalk’s robotics and biotech analyst) and I published a piece earlier this week in The Washington Post, arguing how America’s student visa system is critical for future science and tech success. They’ve graciously allowed us to rerun it below.
As President Donald Trump is escalating the competition with China, he risks handing it a generation-defining victory by cutting off America’s ability to recruit the best talent in the industries of the future.
In the past month, roughly 1,400 international students and scholars have had their visas revoked or exchange records terminated. Students are being forced out for infractions as minor as dismissed traffic tickets with no link to antisemitism, protesting, criminal charges or anything else labeled a safety threat by the White House. With no clear logic or public explanation behind who is detained or deported, the result is a climate of confusion and fear.
The administration is also threatening the admissions process, with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem warning she could block Harvard University’s ability to enroll international students entirely. Existing students are facing additional upheaval from the sudden freeze and elimination of research grants throughout the higher-education system.
This newly chaotic environment jeopardizes a vital talent pipeline that underpins America’s technological edge — and that, if it isn’t fixed, will have deep repercussions for U.S.-China competition for decades to come.
Foreign talent is a core contributor to the scientific discovery and technological progress that have upheld American leadership over the past century. International students make up about 42 percent of STEM PhD graduates in the United States, and rather than “stealing seats,” they are subsidizing Americans’ education by paying full tuition. Their presence generates revenue that sustains academic programs, lowers the trade deficit and funds financial aid that supports increased domestic enrollment.
In recent years, about 75 percent of these students have been choosing to stay. And they have delivered when they do: One study by the National Bureau of Economic Research attributed 36 percent of American innovation (accounting for quantity, quality and value generated from patents, as well as spillover effects) in recent decades to immigrants. One-half of advanced STEM graduates working in the defense industrial base were born abroad, and 60 percent of top U.S. artificial intelligence companies were co-founded by immigrants — most of whom arrived on student visas. And far from taking jobs from Americans, immigrants with STEM education fill skill gaps in critical fields such as health care and technology and occupy complementary roles that support U.S.-born workers.
This edge in building the technology of tomorrow — AI, robotics, quantum computing, advanced batteries — is now under extreme threat from the administration’s seemingly arbitrary crackdown on students. In the face of uncertainty around visas and funding, international STEM students are increasingly reweighing their options in favor of countries outside the U.S. that are doing their best to take advantage of this unique recruiting opportunity. If visa revocations continue, the U.S. might lose some of the best and brightest minds the world has to offer — systematically undermining the future of American innovation at a time when China’s homegrown engineers are already leapfrogging American competitors in key technologies.
China knows what it’s like to have brains drained by foreign schools and employers: Among international STEM PhD graduates from U.S. institutions, those from China choose to stay about 90 percent of the time. Beijing has been trying for years to reverse that trend and is surely celebrating America’s self-sabotaging decision to help Beijing do so.
In a 2021 speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that his country must win the global battle to cultivate “human capital.” China has spearheaded dozens of initiatives to recruit talent, including Chinese workers who left for schools and companies abroad. These programs offer funding, family support and resources for research, aimed at making it easy for Chinese and foreign scientists working overseas to move to China. In the U.S., a group of Republicans in Congress recently introduced a bill to close off American schools to all Chinese students, effectively doing the Chinese Communist Party’s job for it. The bill is a long shot to pass but reinforces the message that China’s best and brightest should look elsewhere.
As of now, international researchers consistently view the U.S. as the more attractive destination for world-class education and opportunities, despite a notoriously complex and sluggish immigration system. But when something as routine as a traffic violation or a trip home could derail the futures of biology and engineering graduate students, trust erodes. The effects will reverberate far beyond the individuals pushed out. Mass visa terminations for arbitrary reasons send a clear message: Even if you try to play by the rules, you won’t be safe. Families considering a U.S. education now have to weigh not just sky-high tuition but also the possibility that a student could have to leave the country before they even earn a degree. When top global talent no longer sees America as a stable, long-term bet — in light of both visa and research funding insecurity — many will vote with their feet.
These concerns should resonate with Trump, who has repeatedly discussed the importance of winning the competition for workers. Just last year, he told the tech-focused “All-In” podcast that the government should automatically offer green cards to foreign graduates of American schools, a proposal he floated in his 2016 campaign as well. In December, he joined tech allies such as Elon Musk in defending the value of H-1B visas from critics inside his coalition. His administration now seems determined to undermine those goals.
In a recent call to revitalize America’s science and technology enterprise, Trump invoked Vannevar Bush, chief science and technology advisor to Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman. In his pivotal report, “Science: The Endless Frontier,” Bush wrote:
The publicly and privately supported colleges, universities, and research institutes are the centers of basic research. They are the wellsprings of knowledge and understanding. As long as they are vigorous and healthy and their scientists are free to pursue the truth wherever it may lead, there will be a flow of new scientific knowledge to those who can apply it to practical problems in Government, in industry, or elsewhere.
Bush handed America the blueprint for winning the 20th century: Open the doors to talent, fund basic science at scale, and let researchers chase truth. That formula has powered U.S. leadership to a Cold War victory and leadership in critical technologies such as AI and biotech today. And it’s one we should follow into the 21st.
This article followed our longstanding coverage of the importance of talent in US-China competition. Back in 2020, I wrote about how H1B and ICE rulings threaten to deter the brightest and best talent from the world. Since then, we’ve discussed how China has prioritized solving its domestic talent shortages, how foreign talent is the foundation of the US’s strong AI sector, and how leading Party thinkers see America’s open immigration policy as a key threat to China’s tech rise.
All the focus in the world on technology will be meaningless without the accompanying talent base to bring that tech to life. Which of course includes a very significant percentage of immigrants.
It’s rough out here on the ground :(