There is something about the American liberal (classical version!) that grates me when it comes to China.
Its not as honest as the more traditional 'right-wing' china-hawk, whose obvious and admitted reason for disliking China and / or pushing for confrontation is grounded in profoundly nationalist thinking. Say what you want but that's an honest take and one that's easy to respect.
This particular brand of liberal though (lived in china, likes chinese culture, 'disappointed' that china hasnt become a liberal version of the US, etc etc) is just irksome. They want a china to be a larger version of japan - culturally cute and attractive and a good source of la mian and poems and ink-paintings and all that other harmless gunk. But crucially it needs to be geopolitically neutered...just to be safe!
Its such a dishonest view, wrapped in endless contradictions. And the insecurity really comes out at times....'WE have escalation dominance! Not you! WEEEE do!!! We're gonna prooove it next tiiimmmeee!! Go get em Donald! You show em Scott!'
Genuinely quite sad to read. Especially because dependencies dont even begin and end with chips (good luck btw getting TSMC to cancel work for every one of its chinese customers without any blowback). Medicines, crucial industrial inputs, etc etc. It will get very very nasty for everybody involved if this truly moves into the upper ends of the escalation ladder (regardless of who has an extra rung here or there).
Perhaps should be called the “Talk Down to China Podcast” @tkz1 spot on! Whenever someone is so insecure that they need to continually tell you they are the best in the world, instead of letting the facts speak for themselves, it tells you all you need to know about their position… It’s very ironic how they claim America’s superiority where as far as I can tell, without the very non American TSMC and their Taiwanese engineering prowess and the nonAmerican ASML they would hardly have any chips at all. Well, there is that American chip powerhouse Intel… not too mention that much of the critical hardware to buildout all the AI infrastructure is coming from China as they are unable to produce it in the USA. So yes, a little humility and self reflection could come in handy! Given the trajectory of US stem education and the reduction in foreign talent, it’s hard to imagine the US being competitive globally 20 years from now. The US is similar to Great Britain in 1905, their best days were far behind them but arrogance was at its peak!!
Watching you little china loving twats pretend it is somehow immoral for the United States to chose not to be an active supporter of China’s geopolitical ambitions is comical.
Go fuck yourself you retard. Or if you’re a Chinese propagandist - go fuck yourself you stupid bitch.
We have a security imperative to get slavery out of our supply chain. Communist China is the most expensive option. We just need to stop capture deletes from making us foot the bill.
Chris's analysis is probably the most neutral and clear-eyed on the semiconductor race that I've read. We would be foolish to underestimate our lead over China in compute, but just like the situation in China where people dare not tell bad news to the party leadership, I wonder if the current structure and style of the current US administration might make it similarly difficult for the truth to get to the ultimate decisionmakers. Hence this administration's vacillation on export control policy.
One implication from Chris's analysis though is that it seems China may have only a narrow window to stop the US from gaining an unassailable lead in compute and thus an unassailable military advantage. We know the CCP can do so by taking control or destroying the world's most advanced fabs that's only 100 miles away from China's coast. I am not sure if either the US or Chinese leadership have realized that the military balance of power may have already shifted decisively to China, given that the Chinese have a huge advantage in industrial capacity, have a significant technological advantage in battery technology and electronics that allows them to produce far more drones and missiles, and a powerful tool for kneecapping the US defense industry in the short term with rare earth controls. However this narrow window of opportunity for them could close quickly once the US's compute advantage kicks in in a few years and AI is fully integrated into the US military. If the Chinese leadership realizes that time is not on their side, I wonder how they would react. As Paul Atreides said in Dune, the power to destroy a thing is the absolute control over it.
All this to say, if we keep climbing the escalation ladder, at least during this narrow window, I think we may not like what we find when we reach the top. Even if the Trump administration is making the wrong policies now, if it could lure the CCP leadership into a false sense of security until the military balance of power shifts, those policies may end up becoming the correct ones for the long term.
Nice pod. I’m a little conflicted, I had other people in the semi supply chain say that Huaewei was actually closer to 1M dies this year. Still this 5x doesn’t close the gap, but it is obvious that have huge error bars.
Chris is going to go wrong by the factor of 100x on China. Dont underestimate China, the more US restrict china in terms of supplying hardware to make chips, china can be innovative in terms of building those hardware and produce chips in more cost effective and with better yield.
The current yield and quality problem which china is facing is temporary and eventually they will do better once they get experience.
The world knows China is way ahead in terms of using AI than US. Glod bless America
There is something about the American liberal (classical version!) that grates me when it comes to China.
Its not as honest as the more traditional 'right-wing' china-hawk, whose obvious and admitted reason for disliking China and / or pushing for confrontation is grounded in profoundly nationalist thinking. Say what you want but that's an honest take and one that's easy to respect.
This particular brand of liberal though (lived in china, likes chinese culture, 'disappointed' that china hasnt become a liberal version of the US, etc etc) is just irksome. They want a china to be a larger version of japan - culturally cute and attractive and a good source of la mian and poems and ink-paintings and all that other harmless gunk. But crucially it needs to be geopolitically neutered...just to be safe!
Its such a dishonest view, wrapped in endless contradictions. And the insecurity really comes out at times....'WE have escalation dominance! Not you! WEEEE do!!! We're gonna prooove it next tiiimmmeee!! Go get em Donald! You show em Scott!'
Genuinely quite sad to read. Especially because dependencies dont even begin and end with chips (good luck btw getting TSMC to cancel work for every one of its chinese customers without any blowback). Medicines, crucial industrial inputs, etc etc. It will get very very nasty for everybody involved if this truly moves into the upper ends of the escalation ladder (regardless of who has an extra rung here or there).
“Genuinely quite sad!”
What a stupid whiny bitch you are. You’re deranged if you’re an American. You’re a run of the mill cunt if you’re Chinese.
China is apparently entitled to everything they’d like from the United States? How dare America do anything that doesn’t support China’s interests!
Perhaps should be called the “Talk Down to China Podcast” @tkz1 spot on! Whenever someone is so insecure that they need to continually tell you they are the best in the world, instead of letting the facts speak for themselves, it tells you all you need to know about their position… It’s very ironic how they claim America’s superiority where as far as I can tell, without the very non American TSMC and their Taiwanese engineering prowess and the nonAmerican ASML they would hardly have any chips at all. Well, there is that American chip powerhouse Intel… not too mention that much of the critical hardware to buildout all the AI infrastructure is coming from China as they are unable to produce it in the USA. So yes, a little humility and self reflection could come in handy! Given the trajectory of US stem education and the reduction in foreign talent, it’s hard to imagine the US being competitive globally 20 years from now. The US is similar to Great Britain in 1905, their best days were far behind them but arrogance was at its peak!!
Watching you little china loving twats pretend it is somehow immoral for the United States to chose not to be an active supporter of China’s geopolitical ambitions is comical.
Go fuck yourself you retard. Or if you’re a Chinese propagandist - go fuck yourself you stupid bitch.
We have a security imperative to get slavery out of our supply chain. Communist China is the most expensive option. We just need to stop capture deletes from making us foot the bill.
Tech things aside, any bully needs to be put to rest.
After separating the calm goers in the herd!
Chris's analysis is probably the most neutral and clear-eyed on the semiconductor race that I've read. We would be foolish to underestimate our lead over China in compute, but just like the situation in China where people dare not tell bad news to the party leadership, I wonder if the current structure and style of the current US administration might make it similarly difficult for the truth to get to the ultimate decisionmakers. Hence this administration's vacillation on export control policy.
One implication from Chris's analysis though is that it seems China may have only a narrow window to stop the US from gaining an unassailable lead in compute and thus an unassailable military advantage. We know the CCP can do so by taking control or destroying the world's most advanced fabs that's only 100 miles away from China's coast. I am not sure if either the US or Chinese leadership have realized that the military balance of power may have already shifted decisively to China, given that the Chinese have a huge advantage in industrial capacity, have a significant technological advantage in battery technology and electronics that allows them to produce far more drones and missiles, and a powerful tool for kneecapping the US defense industry in the short term with rare earth controls. However this narrow window of opportunity for them could close quickly once the US's compute advantage kicks in in a few years and AI is fully integrated into the US military. If the Chinese leadership realizes that time is not on their side, I wonder how they would react. As Paul Atreides said in Dune, the power to destroy a thing is the absolute control over it.
All this to say, if we keep climbing the escalation ladder, at least during this narrow window, I think we may not like what we find when we reach the top. Even if the Trump administration is making the wrong policies now, if it could lure the CCP leadership into a false sense of security until the military balance of power shifts, those policies may end up becoming the correct ones for the long term.
Nice pod. I’m a little conflicted, I had other people in the semi supply chain say that Huaewei was actually closer to 1M dies this year. Still this 5x doesn’t close the gap, but it is obvious that have huge error bars.
stay tuned for the tool where you can plug in different assumptions!
tldr is that if huawei isn't sandbagging its roadmap theyre ngmi
Chris is going to go wrong by the factor of 100x on China. Dont underestimate China, the more US restrict china in terms of supplying hardware to make chips, china can be innovative in terms of building those hardware and produce chips in more cost effective and with better yield.
The current yield and quality problem which china is facing is temporary and eventually they will do better once they get experience.
The world knows China is way ahead in terms of using AI than US. Glod bless America
Love from India
Pretty naive to suggest that “They’re running on their stockpile on HBM chips and will run out!”
There’s a giant ecosystem of people smuggling and selling chips to China. Many of them are in Taiwan.
And the same can be said for “the most complicated supply chain”.
China doesn’t need to buy EUV machines if they slowly, piece by piece can buy and acquire that knowledge.
And of course, the biggest problem is that the entire supply chain is in Taiwan. A couple of missile hits can totally wipe away any lead.