Nice pod. I’m a little conflicted, I had other people in the semi supply chain say that Huaewei was actually closer to 1M dies this year. Still this 5x doesn’t close the gap, but it is obvious that have huge error bars.
We have a security imperative to get slavery out of our supply chain. Communist China is the most expensive option. We just need to stop capture deletes from making us foot the bill.
Chris is going to go wrong by the factor of 100x on China. Dont underestimate China, the more US restrict china in terms of supplying hardware to make chips, china can be innovative in terms of building those hardware and produce chips in more cost effective and with better yield.
The current yield and quality problem which china is facing is temporary and eventually they will do better once they get experience.
The world knows China is way ahead in terms of using AI than US. Glod bless America
Nice pod. I’m a little conflicted, I had other people in the semi supply chain say that Huaewei was actually closer to 1M dies this year. Still this 5x doesn’t close the gap, but it is obvious that have huge error bars.
We have a security imperative to get slavery out of our supply chain. Communist China is the most expensive option. We just need to stop capture deletes from making us foot the bill.
Chris is going to go wrong by the factor of 100x on China. Dont underestimate China, the more US restrict china in terms of supplying hardware to make chips, china can be innovative in terms of building those hardware and produce chips in more cost effective and with better yield.
The current yield and quality problem which china is facing is temporary and eventually they will do better once they get experience.
The world knows China is way ahead in terms of using AI than US. Glod bless America
Love from India
Pretty naive to suggest that “They’re running on their stockpile on HBM chips and will run out!”
There’s a giant ecosystem of people smuggling and selling chips to China. Many of them are in Taiwan.
And the same can be said for “the most complicated supply chain”.
China doesn’t need to buy EUV machines if they slowly, piece by piece can buy and acquire that knowledge.
And of course, the biggest problem is that the entire supply chain is in Taiwan. A couple of missile hits can totally wipe away any lead.