Nick, the "Pinduoduo Radar" line is great clickbait, but it reveals a dangerous complacency in Western analysis.
You are judging the PLA's domestic capabilities based on their "Monkey Export Models." In the arms trade, no Great Power sells its top-tier kit to a client with zero discipline. The radar in Caracas is to the PLA's integrated coastal defense what a 1990s Honda Civic is to a Formula 1 car. Furthermore, Hardware is useless without Software (Discipline). Maduro’s army had high entropy; the PLA has high order. Confusing the two is a fatal intel error.
On the "Failure of the China Model": You imply China failed because it didn't save Maduro. But System B isn't NATO. It doesn't sell "Security Guarantees" (Article 5); it sells "Mercantile Solvency." Maduro was operationally insolvent. He couldn't pump the oil to pay the interest. If the US wants to step in as the new Property Manager and spend billions in CapEx to fix the pumps? Great. The Senior Creditor (China) welcomes the liquidity. China doesn't need a friend in Miraflores; it needs a payer.
On the Taiwan Analogy: This is the most critical distinction. Venezuela was a Raid (Fast, Kinetic, Destructive) on a Commodity Asset (Oil). Taiwan would be a Siege (Slow, Strangulating, Preservative) on a Computational Asset (Chips).
You can snatch a dictator in a morning. But you cannot snatch a 3nm Fab without shattering the wafers inside. One is a police action; the other is a metabolic strangulation. The physics dictate the tactics.
Surely fabs would not survive, nor be the primary target of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To imagine that the Chinese would roll into Hsingchu and find WFE untouched and skilled technicians ready and willing to return to work is a far reach in my opinion.
Nick, you are confusing "Asset Utilization" with "Asset Denial."
You argue that China won't invade because they can't force the engineers to work or keep the ASML machines running. ChinArb Reality Check: China doesn't need TSMC to run on Day 1. China just needs TSMC to stop running for you.
1. The "Scorched Earth" is Acceptable Damage If TSMC is destroyed (by US sabotage or war), who loses more?
System B (China): We are already sanctioned. We are already building a de-Americanized "Plan B" supply chain (SMIC/Huawei). We are used to the pain.
System A (US): Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, and Qualcomm rely on TSMC for >90% of their cutting-edge logic. If Hsinchu goes dark, the Nasdaq implies a 40% correction. The AI Revolution stops cold. The Strategic Goal isn't necessarily to own the golden goose; it is to ensure the goose stops laying eggs for the rival empire.
2. The "Engineer" Myth You say skilled technicians won't return to work. History suggests otherwise.
Most people are not freedom fighters; they are salarymen with mortgages and families.
When the flag changes, 10% flee, 10% fight, and 80% show up on Monday to keep their pension. Furthermore, the "Sovereign Lien" applies. Beijing has the data. They know where the engineers' grandmothers live. The "persuasion" won't be ideological; it will be personal and pragmatic.
3. The Real Target: Sovereignty, then Supply Chain You are right that Fabs aren't the only target. The primary target is Sovereignty (political legitimacy). But the Fabs are the "Hostage" that prevents the US from intervening. Beijing knows the US cannot afford to let TSMC burn. That is why the strategy is "Siege" (Blockade), not "Invasion" (Bombing). A Blockade forces the US to choose: Fire the first shot to break the siege (and risk the Fabs burning), or negotiate a surrender (and keep the chips flowing under new management). China is betting the US will choose the Chips over the Democracy.
"On Weibo (Chinese Twitter)" - this is a very silly and unserious critique but... 1. You don't have to call it "Chinese Twitter" - we know what it is, or can go find out on our own. 2. If you insist on providing a marker, "Chinese Twitter" is an actively silly way to do it. Twitter matured as a product (saturated market, flat growth, end of the S curve) in early 2016. It changed name to X in 2022.
It hasn't even *been* Twitter for 30% of its mature product life. If you're gonna insist..."Chinese X" would be miles more accurate, even if it punches older internet users in the feels and makes them momentarily sad for The Platform That Used To Be.
The CIA bought off the Venezulan military who then told the operators of the defense systems to stand down. Can't criticize the manufacturers for that. Link discusses the shutdown.
They already took care of that. Probably why Trump is saying Venezula is broke. On December 23rd, Russian and Chinese cargo planes cleaned out Venezula's silver supply, all 847 tons of it.
And the Venezzulan govt immediately declared force majure on all its silver contracts which represented 12 percent of this year's planned for supply.
That's why the world silver markets just went nuts.
Thank-you for providing a PRC perspective to the current situation in Venezuela. I also enjoyed the comments from other readers. Definitely adds to the overall value of the article. Just the rambling thoughts of an old hermit. (Hope I haven't upset anyone. )
Nick, the "Pinduoduo Radar" line is great clickbait, but it reveals a dangerous complacency in Western analysis.
You are judging the PLA's domestic capabilities based on their "Monkey Export Models." In the arms trade, no Great Power sells its top-tier kit to a client with zero discipline. The radar in Caracas is to the PLA's integrated coastal defense what a 1990s Honda Civic is to a Formula 1 car. Furthermore, Hardware is useless without Software (Discipline). Maduro’s army had high entropy; the PLA has high order. Confusing the two is a fatal intel error.
On the "Failure of the China Model": You imply China failed because it didn't save Maduro. But System B isn't NATO. It doesn't sell "Security Guarantees" (Article 5); it sells "Mercantile Solvency." Maduro was operationally insolvent. He couldn't pump the oil to pay the interest. If the US wants to step in as the new Property Manager and spend billions in CapEx to fix the pumps? Great. The Senior Creditor (China) welcomes the liquidity. China doesn't need a friend in Miraflores; it needs a payer.
On the Taiwan Analogy: This is the most critical distinction. Venezuela was a Raid (Fast, Kinetic, Destructive) on a Commodity Asset (Oil). Taiwan would be a Siege (Slow, Strangulating, Preservative) on a Computational Asset (Chips).
You can snatch a dictator in a morning. But you cannot snatch a 3nm Fab without shattering the wafers inside. One is a police action; the other is a metabolic strangulation. The physics dictate the tactics.
Surely fabs would not survive, nor be the primary target of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To imagine that the Chinese would roll into Hsingchu and find WFE untouched and skilled technicians ready and willing to return to work is a far reach in my opinion.
Nick, you are confusing "Asset Utilization" with "Asset Denial."
You argue that China won't invade because they can't force the engineers to work or keep the ASML machines running. ChinArb Reality Check: China doesn't need TSMC to run on Day 1. China just needs TSMC to stop running for you.
1. The "Scorched Earth" is Acceptable Damage If TSMC is destroyed (by US sabotage or war), who loses more?
System B (China): We are already sanctioned. We are already building a de-Americanized "Plan B" supply chain (SMIC/Huawei). We are used to the pain.
System A (US): Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, and Qualcomm rely on TSMC for >90% of their cutting-edge logic. If Hsinchu goes dark, the Nasdaq implies a 40% correction. The AI Revolution stops cold. The Strategic Goal isn't necessarily to own the golden goose; it is to ensure the goose stops laying eggs for the rival empire.
2. The "Engineer" Myth You say skilled technicians won't return to work. History suggests otherwise.
Most people are not freedom fighters; they are salarymen with mortgages and families.
When the flag changes, 10% flee, 10% fight, and 80% show up on Monday to keep their pension. Furthermore, the "Sovereign Lien" applies. Beijing has the data. They know where the engineers' grandmothers live. The "persuasion" won't be ideological; it will be personal and pragmatic.
3. The Real Target: Sovereignty, then Supply Chain You are right that Fabs aren't the only target. The primary target is Sovereignty (political legitimacy). But the Fabs are the "Hostage" that prevents the US from intervening. Beijing knows the US cannot afford to let TSMC burn. That is why the strategy is "Siege" (Blockade), not "Invasion" (Bombing). A Blockade forces the US to choose: Fire the first shot to break the siege (and risk the Fabs burning), or negotiate a surrender (and keep the chips flowing under new management). China is betting the US will choose the Chips over the Democracy.
"On Weibo (Chinese Twitter)" - this is a very silly and unserious critique but... 1. You don't have to call it "Chinese Twitter" - we know what it is, or can go find out on our own. 2. If you insist on providing a marker, "Chinese Twitter" is an actively silly way to do it. Twitter matured as a product (saturated market, flat growth, end of the S curve) in early 2016. It changed name to X in 2022.
It hasn't even *been* Twitter for 30% of its mature product life. If you're gonna insist..."Chinese X" would be miles more accurate, even if it punches older internet users in the feels and makes them momentarily sad for The Platform That Used To Be.
Two thoughts:
Chinese and Russian air defenses
The CIA bought off the Venezulan military who then told the operators of the defense systems to stand down. Can't criticize the manufacturers for that. Link discusses the shutdown.
https://rumble.com/v73y8d0-judgingfreedom.html?e9s=src_v1_cbl%2Csrc_v1_ucp_a
Russian and Chinese Venezulan debt
They already took care of that. Probably why Trump is saying Venezula is broke. On December 23rd, Russian and Chinese cargo planes cleaned out Venezula's silver supply, all 847 tons of it.
And the Venezzulan govt immediately declared force majure on all its silver contracts which represented 12 percent of this year's planned for supply.
That's why the world silver markets just went nuts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uc1Adgk9Czw
Thank-you for providing a PRC perspective to the current situation in Venezuela. I also enjoyed the comments from other readers. Definitely adds to the overall value of the article. Just the rambling thoughts of an old hermit. (Hope I haven't upset anyone. )