Good piece re-highlighting the importance of the Arctic - but more importantly, access to the Arctic via icebreakers. Russia currently leads in this sub-sphere, but China’s shipbuilding capabilities continue to grow. Another example of the Pillars of Power in action..
From our related Arctic piece from last March:
“These new trade routes and other exploratory activities are forged by nuclear-powered icebreakers – and Russia happens to be the only country in the World to have a fleet (another Technology/Energy Pillar overlap).”
I almost stopped reading here: "Russia’s expansive military footprint". In its own territory?! How can one be expanding footprint in its own territory, by just modernizing existing military bases, inherited from the Soviet Union because of the continuous pressuer exerted by the US. The desire by Russia to create capacity to defend the northern route, which is legally under its control - UNCLOS stipulates that the open sea between the shores and iceshelf is under control of the littoral country. When the law was adopted, global warming was mostly just an idea.
As for the incapacity of Russian industry to be self reliant, maybe this is a bit of a wishfull thinking from the Chinese part. This was one article that seemed to copy the most the tone and the ideas esposed by the western press in respect to Russia (anyone remembers the computer chips taken from the washing machines) and sometimes applied to China.
I will believe this nonsense (if push come to shove, financing can be eased for strategic projects, no?) when Russia will not start mass producing their 100% Russian made MC-21 commercial jet plane and the Chinese will be able to have an airplane 100% made in China.
This is a strong material analysis, but it’s still framed geopolitically.
What’s actually shifting isn’t just leverage between states, it’s the separation of symbolic sovereignty from operational capability.
Russia retains the flag, the law, and the narrative. China increasingly supplies the systems that make Arctic activity function at all.
That’s not a partnership problem, it’s a governance transition, where control migrates to whoever maintains the infrastructure the system depends on.
Good piece re-highlighting the importance of the Arctic - but more importantly, access to the Arctic via icebreakers. Russia currently leads in this sub-sphere, but China’s shipbuilding capabilities continue to grow. Another example of the Pillars of Power in action..
From our related Arctic piece from last March:
“These new trade routes and other exploratory activities are forged by nuclear-powered icebreakers – and Russia happens to be the only country in the World to have a fleet (another Technology/Energy Pillar overlap).”
Link to piece: https://aquavis.substack.com/p/pop-the-arctic-and-its-rising-importance
Link to companion materials: https://aquavis.substack.com/p/pop-the-arctic-and-its-rising-importance-46a
Pillars of Power framework in the China/Russia relationship:
- China providing the Technology and Money
- Russia providing the Energy (nuclear/SMR)
Thanks for this viewpoint into the bigger story. All media have blown the coverage of this whole matter!
I almost stopped reading here: "Russia’s expansive military footprint". In its own territory?! How can one be expanding footprint in its own territory, by just modernizing existing military bases, inherited from the Soviet Union because of the continuous pressuer exerted by the US. The desire by Russia to create capacity to defend the northern route, which is legally under its control - UNCLOS stipulates that the open sea between the shores and iceshelf is under control of the littoral country. When the law was adopted, global warming was mostly just an idea.
As for the incapacity of Russian industry to be self reliant, maybe this is a bit of a wishfull thinking from the Chinese part. This was one article that seemed to copy the most the tone and the ideas esposed by the western press in respect to Russia (anyone remembers the computer chips taken from the washing machines) and sometimes applied to China.
I will believe this nonsense (if push come to shove, financing can be eased for strategic projects, no?) when Russia will not start mass producing their 100% Russian made MC-21 commercial jet plane and the Chinese will be able to have an airplane 100% made in China.
Dump all disUSA bonds.
US freeloaders repay for your evil