Helpful analysis. Regarding "The plain number [of compute for remote access] does not properly explicate the compute’s usefulness; due to latency requirements, Chinese actors likely cannot utilize this compute pool for large-scale training purposes" -- I wouldn't think latency between China & overseas datacenters is a barrier for training, and even for inference purposes it shouldn't be the main blocker for most use cases? Regulatory restrictions on exporting Chinese user data overseas is likely the bigger barrier for training models overseas
Human health has been profoundly transformed over the past century, largely due to scientific progress and international collaboration. The global maternal mortality rate has fallen by more than 40% since 2000, and deaths among children under five have been reduced by over 50%. Advances in technology, scientific knowledge and skills, and collaboration between different disciplines, sectors and countries continue to turn once-life-threatening health challenges – such as elevated blood pressure, cancer diagnoses or HIV infection – into manageable health issues, extending and improving lives worldwide.
“Yet, health threats continue to grow, fuelled by climate impacts, environmental degradation, geopolitical tensions and shifting demographics. These challenges include persistent diseases and strained health systems as well as emerging diseases with epidemic or pandemic potential. Across the globe, thousands of scientists – together with organizations such as WHO – are accelerating research and developing policies, tools and innovations needed to protect communities today and safeguard the health of future generations.
“Science is one of humanity’s most powerful tools for protecting and improving health,” “People in every country live longer and healthier lives on average today than their ancestors did, thanks to the power of science. Vaccines, penicillin, germ theory, MRI machines and the mapping of the human genome are just some of the achievements that science has delivered that have saved lives and transformed health for billions of people.”
WHO has been coming through and saving life for 78yrs and still counting..
Useful piece. Ties directly into my view that the Technology Race is The Race - US vs. China in Cold War 2.0.
“The Technology (AI) Race is The Race to establish Power and Control the Global World Order — everything else, from Energy to Money, flows from there”
“For the Technology layer for this cycle, we are primarily focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI) – which is simplistically decomposed into Compute, Data, and Algorithms. Semiconductors are the base layer of the Compute engine – the ‘oil’ of Compute. Data is the critical input into Algorithms – the ‘oil’ of Algorithms. The Confluence of the three effectively composes AI – which will be the foundation layer to build on for the next decade+.”
“Ordering matters. First you need to build out the Compute capacity — the railroad tracks — before you can scale the Data-processing and Algorithm-building — the trains and cargo on top.”
Counting chips and counting deployable compute capacity aren't the same exercise. China's 15th FYP is building the connective layer — national computing network, provincial AI centres, the Eastern Data Western Computing routing system. That's what turns a mixed bag of Ascend 910Cs, smuggled Blackwells, and remote-access clusters into something that actually functions at scale. The supply-side number matters less than whether the deployment infrastructure can absorb it. From what I understand, the buildout is moving faster than most Western analysts assume.
Helpful analysis. Regarding "The plain number [of compute for remote access] does not properly explicate the compute’s usefulness; due to latency requirements, Chinese actors likely cannot utilize this compute pool for large-scale training purposes" -- I wouldn't think latency between China & overseas datacenters is a barrier for training, and even for inference purposes it shouldn't be the main blocker for most use cases? Regulatory restrictions on exporting Chinese user data overseas is likely the bigger barrier for training models overseas
Good point! I would still maintain that latency is a real issue, but Chinese law on exporting user data is another big barrier.
This gov speech (https://www.nda.gov.cn/sjj/jgsz/jld/llh/llhldhd/0323/20260323202204680553721_pc.html) claims that by end of 2025, China's AI compute reached 1,590,000 PFlops. Does this affect your estimate?
Grace 🪔 and peace 🕊️ to you
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/540acc9d-1cf3-4cde-9f00-8915c2060c80
🤓 Markets and Planning in the Surveillance Ecosystem ~ 💰🇦🇹🐲🤖💸💽⚡🦅📜🐳📋💱🌐
Human health has been profoundly transformed over the past century, largely due to scientific progress and international collaboration. The global maternal mortality rate has fallen by more than 40% since 2000, and deaths among children under five have been reduced by over 50%. Advances in technology, scientific knowledge and skills, and collaboration between different disciplines, sectors and countries continue to turn once-life-threatening health challenges – such as elevated blood pressure, cancer diagnoses or HIV infection – into manageable health issues, extending and improving lives worldwide.
“Yet, health threats continue to grow, fuelled by climate impacts, environmental degradation, geopolitical tensions and shifting demographics. These challenges include persistent diseases and strained health systems as well as emerging diseases with epidemic or pandemic potential. Across the globe, thousands of scientists – together with organizations such as WHO – are accelerating research and developing policies, tools and innovations needed to protect communities today and safeguard the health of future generations.
“Science is one of humanity’s most powerful tools for protecting and improving health,” “People in every country live longer and healthier lives on average today than their ancestors did, thanks to the power of science. Vaccines, penicillin, germ theory, MRI machines and the mapping of the human genome are just some of the achievements that science has delivered that have saved lives and transformed health for billions of people.”
WHO has been coming through and saving life for 78yrs and still counting..
Useful piece. Ties directly into my view that the Technology Race is The Race - US vs. China in Cold War 2.0.
“The Technology (AI) Race is The Race to establish Power and Control the Global World Order — everything else, from Energy to Money, flows from there”
“For the Technology layer for this cycle, we are primarily focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI) – which is simplistically decomposed into Compute, Data, and Algorithms. Semiconductors are the base layer of the Compute engine – the ‘oil’ of Compute. Data is the critical input into Algorithms – the ‘oil’ of Algorithms. The Confluence of the three effectively composes AI – which will be the foundation layer to build on for the next decade+.”
“Ordering matters. First you need to build out the Compute capacity — the railroad tracks — before you can scale the Data-processing and Algorithm-building — the trains and cargo on top.”
https://aquavis.substack.com/p/pop-us-and-the-trump-agenda-6-months
Counting chips and counting deployable compute capacity aren't the same exercise. China's 15th FYP is building the connective layer — national computing network, provincial AI centres, the Eastern Data Western Computing routing system. That's what turns a mixed bag of Ascend 910Cs, smuggled Blackwells, and remote-access clusters into something that actually functions at scale. The supply-side number matters less than whether the deployment infrastructure can absorb it. From what I understand, the buildout is moving faster than most Western analysts assume.