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Jack Shanahan's avatar

So many insights here.

Staggering to think about the explosive growth curve from production or purchase of around 3000 drones in 2022, to producing/assembling 5 million FPV drones a year domestically.

As good as our R&D labs are, I have a hard time believing they could match what's happening here (at least not in peacetime): "As I mentioned earlier, when systems get built in the factory and sent to military R&D labs, they essentially disassemble and reassemble them. The reason is that manufacturers can’t predict which features the frontline will need by the time products ship out."

Ukraine has gone from just-in-time manufacturing, which is hard enough, to just-in-time disassembly/reassembly. Remarkable.

I've been thinking for years about what the modern-day Freedom's Forge could look like in the U.S. in the digital age. What's playing out in Ukraine seems to offer one an excellent template.

China's role in playing both sides of the drone wars is fascinating. Fully decoupling of global tech supply chains remains a goal for many, but this conversation only underscores how challenging that will be, if it's even ever possible.

Will Rasmussen's avatar

What the Ukrainians have done is very impressive, particularly their ingenuity. As mentioned in the article, they were the powerhouse creating a lot of the USSR’s advanced military tech, but it’s fascinating that they’ve been able to recreate that in modern times. Even more impressive that it’s against their former overlord who has significantly more resources.

I think the US is setting up the ground floor to be able to scale up domestic production during a wartime scenario. We’re finally investing in rare earth mining and refining. It’ll take a while to get it up to speed, but that base is the most important part.

I agree that the only way we’d match what the Ukrainians are doing is by being engaged in a conflict requiring it. I doubt the main MIC behemoths would be nimble enough to do though. It’d probably take smaller firms popping up like they are in Ukraine. Their fast feedback R&D style along with modularity is certainly a good blueprint. When this is finally over, Ukraine is going to come out of it as a serious contender for arms production on a global scale.

Jordan Schneider's avatar

i think you have the belt for best commentator Jack

also we'd love to have you on WarTalk one day!