This is very interesting but times and missile technology have changed considerably. China’s calculation is that if it can successfully blockade the island with ships and missiles, it won’t have to fight inch-by-inch on land.
It does depends on Taiwan’s willingness to resist and not surrender. Holding territory vs harassment would ultimately require boots on the ground, which Ukraine has shown applies even today. I do think raising the cost of embarking on such an adventure would help, as per the history.
That being said, I’m not sure any level of deterrence by Taiwan alone would ever be enough to actually forestall an attack vs Chinese will to do so.
Awesome research. However, it's important to emphasize here that we're talking about deterring an invasion. Deterring a blockade or joint firepower strike campaign and responding to Chinese grey zone operations is another matter entirely and arguably requires some conventional systems. Getting the balance right is the key strategic question. https://ordersandobservations.substack.com/
Interesting to think about whether the PLA’s calculus is driven more by hard military costs or by perceived allied resolve. If the U.S. or Japan seemed hesitant or distracted, could that shift Beijing’s risk assessment — even if Taiwan’s defenses remain strong?
The problem with the blockade strategy is it gives time for the US, Japan, and others to come to Taiwan’s aid. The alternative is an invasion that is quick and presents a fait accompli, taking the island before the weeks or even months (assuming inadequate warning) it would for a critical mass of US forces to reach the theater.
Creating uncertainty a Chinese invasion would quickly succeed is critical. Having a strategy with the U.S., Japan, and others for how to break a blockade is equally critical.
This is very interesting but times and missile technology have changed considerably. China’s calculation is that if it can successfully blockade the island with ships and missiles, it won’t have to fight inch-by-inch on land.
ha yes more history than lessons for today but a fun thing to explore! gotta hook em somehow
It does depends on Taiwan’s willingness to resist and not surrender. Holding territory vs harassment would ultimately require boots on the ground, which Ukraine has shown applies even today. I do think raising the cost of embarking on such an adventure would help, as per the history.
That being said, I’m not sure any level of deterrence by Taiwan alone would ever be enough to actually forestall an attack vs Chinese will to do so.
Agree. It has to be deterrence by Taiwan plus US plus Japan, at the very least.
Awesome research. However, it's important to emphasize here that we're talking about deterring an invasion. Deterring a blockade or joint firepower strike campaign and responding to Chinese grey zone operations is another matter entirely and arguably requires some conventional systems. Getting the balance right is the key strategic question. https://ordersandobservations.substack.com/
lol yes more history than lessons for today but a fun thing to explore!
Interesting to think about whether the PLA’s calculus is driven more by hard military costs or by perceived allied resolve. If the U.S. or Japan seemed hesitant or distracted, could that shift Beijing’s risk assessment — even if Taiwan’s defenses remain strong?
The problem with the blockade strategy is it gives time for the US, Japan, and others to come to Taiwan’s aid. The alternative is an invasion that is quick and presents a fait accompli, taking the island before the weeks or even months (assuming inadequate warning) it would for a critical mass of US forces to reach the theater.
Creating uncertainty a Chinese invasion would quickly succeed is critical. Having a strategy with the U.S., Japan, and others for how to break a blockade is equally critical.
Jordan, your best article yet. Great interesting read, thank you.
And yes we could what if this all day but your basic, this is what Japan was thinking and doing was fascinating.
Well, like for Japan back then, the clock _is ticking_.