Thank you for discussing these topics , Ive been trying to come up with a framework or mental model for how to think about the trade off between industrial resilience and peace time economics and it feels like this is the first thing that’s digging into this
For people who have never worked in the US government, it may be hard to appreciate what is, to me, damn-near miraculous: going from a Vision for Success paper to leading-edge fab production in the US in the space of a few years. It's a stunning achievement, no matter what objections some may have with the CHIPS program. I place it on a par with building the nuclear Navy, if not even more impressive. Thanks to Dan and his incredible team of all-stars.
You're questions about "escalation management" and "digital age deterrence" in this new geopolitical and geoeconomics environment are extremely difficult to answer, yet might be the most pressing considerations of all over the next decade. If we spent a billion dollars and put the nation's best thinkers on it, and model & sim it to death, perhaps we come up with a 95% solution. Yet the remaining 5% of "unknown unknowns" could be so fundamentally consequential that they could change the course of history if either the US or China decide to embark on a path that ends in conflict.
Of course, all of this depends on having an industrial policy that is rational, logical, enduring, and resourced. Neo-royalism or kleptocracy might be policy, but not the kind that will ever lead to the desired outcomes for the country.
Thanks for this. It is refreshing to be reminded of the days when they were smart people who understood semi industry dynamics guiding US industrial policy. CHIPS accomplished a ton of heavy lifting in a very brief period of time. And I would def like to see the first draft of that report one day!
One thing that did jump out at me though was the trope that Xiaomi/BYD/the Chinese system is all about fast followers. It bleeds into the concept that China copycats while America internet. Understand this discussion is focused on capital-intensive hardware industries, but if you look at internet then its hard to argue that China has not genuinely innovated and become the leader (WeChat, AliPay &tc &tc). After all what is Reels if not a fast-follower of TikTok??
Thank you for discussing these topics , Ive been trying to come up with a framework or mental model for how to think about the trade off between industrial resilience and peace time economics and it feels like this is the first thing that’s digging into this
much more to come!
For people who have never worked in the US government, it may be hard to appreciate what is, to me, damn-near miraculous: going from a Vision for Success paper to leading-edge fab production in the US in the space of a few years. It's a stunning achievement, no matter what objections some may have with the CHIPS program. I place it on a par with building the nuclear Navy, if not even more impressive. Thanks to Dan and his incredible team of all-stars.
You're questions about "escalation management" and "digital age deterrence" in this new geopolitical and geoeconomics environment are extremely difficult to answer, yet might be the most pressing considerations of all over the next decade. If we spent a billion dollars and put the nation's best thinkers on it, and model & sim it to death, perhaps we come up with a 95% solution. Yet the remaining 5% of "unknown unknowns" could be so fundamentally consequential that they could change the course of history if either the US or China decide to embark on a path that ends in conflict.
Of course, all of this depends on having an industrial policy that is rational, logical, enduring, and resourced. Neo-royalism or kleptocracy might be policy, but not the kind that will ever lead to the desired outcomes for the country.
Thanks for this. It is refreshing to be reminded of the days when they were smart people who understood semi industry dynamics guiding US industrial policy. CHIPS accomplished a ton of heavy lifting in a very brief period of time. And I would def like to see the first draft of that report one day!
One thing that did jump out at me though was the trope that Xiaomi/BYD/the Chinese system is all about fast followers. It bleeds into the concept that China copycats while America internet. Understand this discussion is focused on capital-intensive hardware industries, but if you look at internet then its hard to argue that China has not genuinely innovated and become the leader (WeChat, AliPay &tc &tc). After all what is Reels if not a fast-follower of TikTok??