My first time to read. Interesting, worthwhile insights, but a little hard to follow due to the many short-hand references, even though I am pretty well informed. Two comments: there really is no off ramp to the Iran war for the US that is not awful. Reparations to Iran (under another name, not discussed) might be the cheapest. 2. You guys talk about clearing the Strait (as much as possible) and US tanker insurance and naval escorts for an indefinite duration (when could safely stop?) It struck me that the cost of that would be astronomical.
First timer, also. Also some couple of problems with the shorthand, but I can eventually figure those. I like your reparations to Iran thought. I do think the escort idea is an impossiblitity (unless Iran laughs up their sleeve and says, "have it it girls and boys. We'll catch you up on the flip side).
One other thing about escorting; How many ships captains and crews are going to think that sounds like a bunch of fun? You know fella's the usa is so reliable.
First: Does anybody think shipping corporations are going to risk $200M vessels carrying $1B cargo? There isn’t a single CEO of any shipping line who will do it, particularly since insurers are all backing away. Like you’ve pointed out, too easy for Iranians hiding along the Gulf to take potshots. Second: Related to your points about intelligence and planning… Closing the Strait is such an obvious response I, a non-military guy nor master strategist, could see this coming as soon as news broke about Operation Epic Misstep.
You open by making a comparison with the war of the Austrian succession. The parallel, if there is one at all, is completely superficial. A comparison between Frederick II of Prussia and Donald Duck is laughable. Even if Frederick was a chancer and improviser (they not a grifter), and maybe fundamentally malign like Putin, he had intellect. I see no evidence that Trump, a shallow buffoon, with enormous power, has any claim to cleverness at all. Quite the reverse.
Frederick managed to hold onto his Kharg Island, after the war of the Austrian succession and the Seven Years War. He had the advantage that Silesia was contiguous to Prussia. Somehow I don’t see Kharg Island becoming an integral part of the United States, do you.
You do yourself a deep disservice when you insert quotes alongside references to a letter… a letter that does not contain those quotes, and a person who didn’t use them. It damages your credibility.
I don’t believe it’s antisemitic to point out the that the government of Israel helped convince Trump to start this folly. Is it antisemitic now to ever reference Israel in any negative light? Or to acknowledge that Israel influences American politics, as do many other nations? How much self-censorship is enough??
The rest is good and interesting. But credibility matters, and you wasted much of it with that paragraph.
Maybe we were fucked when we walked away from JCPOA because of Trump's one sided dick measuring contest with Obama and this mess was the inevitable outcome.
It is shoving a country from being a "negotiable adversary" into becoming a "fragmented, uncontrollable system."
Donald Trump's ultimatum has expired. The demand was simple: open the Strait of Hormuz, or the power grid gets hit.
In this exact moment, the paradigm shifted.
This is no longer a military operation in the traditional sense.
The target has shifted from "the military" to "the system."
Power, water, energy—assets inherently belonging to civilian life—have now become direct targets of attrition.
Meanwhile, the IRGC's response is equally clear: if you hit our infrastructure, we will hit the energy and water systems of the entire Middle East.
This means one thing—the very structure of the war has changed.
⸻
A fatal, systemic bug has long been embedded in the decision-making models of Western elites:
They blindly believe that if the "economic cost" is stacked high enough, the adversary is bound to yield.
But in Tehran, this formula is void.
The issue is not how high the cost is, but the "cost mismatch."
The IRGC has never been an elected government that buys legitimacy by providing public services. It does not answer to unemployment rates, nor does it bow to inflation. Its base-layer operating system has only two lines of code: the monopoly of resources, and the monopoly of violence.
Therefore, when the power grid is bombed, the water system paralyzed, and the economy goes into shock, the pain and pressure absolutely cannot transmit upward to the nexus of power.
All the suffocation will be ruthlessly trapped at the bottom of society.
Immediately following this, the system will undergo a despairing, counter-intuitive mutation:
The absolute control of power will not weaken; instead, leveraging the state of war, it will become unprecedentedly formidable.
⸻
The collapse of civilian infrastructure cannot shake the IRGC's base.
But it will precisely annihilate another group—
The urban middle class.
The technocrats.
Those who originally possessed organizational capacity, the ones who could potentially reconstruct the state system in the future.
In other words, the missiles raining from the sky did not hit the "existing ruling structure."
What they shattered are "all potential alternatives."
⸻
This is also why the "regime change" pathway that many anticipate is, in reality, highly unrealistic.
What is far more likely to occur is a much more unstable state:
The state remains, but the structure begins to degrade.
Central control may not vanish immediately, but local power will become highly dispersed. Factions within the IRGC will rely more heavily on their respective networks and resource channels; smuggling, black markets, and proxy systems will radically expand.
This is not a rapid, Libya-style collapse.
It is a far more intractable condition—
An existing state gradually devolving into an ungovernable system.
⸻
What does this mean for Hormuz?
It means the very nature of the problem has mutated.
If Iran were a unified, negotiable state, then the blockade would be a problem that could be lifted.
But if control begins to fragment, then a blockade no longer requires a "unified decision."
It only requires sustained uncertainty.
There is no need to completely close the strait.
You merely need to make every single vessel unsure of its own safety.
This, alone, is enough to hand down a death sentence to the global supply chain.
⸻
Therefore, what is truly happening right now is not a simple escalation or de-escalation.
It is a far deeper transformation:
The conflict is transitioning from being "negotiable" to becoming "incapable of convergence."
⸻
Donald Trump’s strategy is to drive up costs to force the adversary to yield.
But the structural nature of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps dictates that costs do not necessarily translate into concessions.
They are far more likely to mutate into something else:
Stronger control,
Higher uncertainty,
And an exponentially harder-to-resolve system.
⸻
This is not fighting a country.
It is shoving a country from being a "negotiable adversary" into becoming a "fragmented, uncontrollable system."
Dismissing the Israeli’s agency, strategic logic, and role in how the US got to this point is limiting the analysis here. No love for Joe Kent, but it’s silly for the podcast to call it beyond the pale to consider Israeli influence and lobbying.
I fear the much larger danger is Israel using a tactical nuke on Iran. Nearly 100% of Israelis support the war. They likely fear existential danger once Iran has a nuclear weapon. To me it seems probable Israel will conclude they must eliminate Iran before Iran eliminates Israel. I recently reread Barbara Tuchman's "Guns of August" detailing the lead up to WWI. Amazing how much miscommunication, personal animosity, ethnocentrism and sheer egotism led to the loss of millions of lives. Yet we learn nothing.
You guys scheme out the many permutations, and I am certain you are exponentially more knowledgeable than I am. But let's step back and consider the fundamentals. First, many, many of Trump's actions have been so destructive to the country I think we need to consider the possibility of kompromat, seriously. Though it is likely Trump has rationalized his behavior and is only dimly if at all, aware of who he's really working for. (Hint: Starts with P and rhymes with gluten.) So, treason or monumental incompetence? Putin's useful idiot. Fueled by grievance, monumentally inconsistent, fatally impulsive, devoid of empathy, compassion, never really loved by his father, he is incapable of love, and thus unable to really understand others. Imprisoned in his personal straight jacket. Not a happy existence. We feel compassion for the anxious and the depressed but loathe the narcissist, the very last person who should wield power. True, the man is extremely dangerous, understandably hated by friends and foes alike. We are right to be afraid of what he might do, he needs to be deposed. But our scorn alone misses the bigger picture.
Re federally-backed insurance: I have heard elsewhere that insurance is not the primary obstacle to getting commercial shipping through the Strait. The backlog of shipbuilding is so great that even if a tanker and its cargo was 100% insured, no carrier would risk the opportunity cost of being short one for several years in a row.
I read 5000 words of Capital Mischief's latest orgasmic war game scenario on the taking and holding of Kharg Island and came away feeling profoundly manipulated. So, I turned to China Talk and hey presto, all is understandable again.
Seems like all of you would Captain a tanker through the strait. Have you seen then number of tankers up in flames that tried that. There are two crude terminals for 98% of Saudi oil. One missile in each ends all shipping. You don't need tankers if you can't fill them. Ras Tanura and Yanbu. Yanbu is covered by Yemen or Iran. Ras Tanura is in the Gulf an will end in Hell's Fire if any attempt is made to move tankers. Sorry, game over.
My first time to read. Interesting, worthwhile insights, but a little hard to follow due to the many short-hand references, even though I am pretty well informed. Two comments: there really is no off ramp to the Iran war for the US that is not awful. Reparations to Iran (under another name, not discussed) might be the cheapest. 2. You guys talk about clearing the Strait (as much as possible) and US tanker insurance and naval escorts for an indefinite duration (when could safely stop?) It struck me that the cost of that would be astronomical.
First timer, also. Also some couple of problems with the shorthand, but I can eventually figure those. I like your reparations to Iran thought. I do think the escort idea is an impossiblitity (unless Iran laughs up their sleeve and says, "have it it girls and boys. We'll catch you up on the flip side).
One other thing about escorting; How many ships captains and crews are going to think that sounds like a bunch of fun? You know fella's the usa is so reliable.
It's still cheaper than having National Health Service. So even if it gets that bad it's still a bargain.
First: Does anybody think shipping corporations are going to risk $200M vessels carrying $1B cargo? There isn’t a single CEO of any shipping line who will do it, particularly since insurers are all backing away. Like you’ve pointed out, too easy for Iranians hiding along the Gulf to take potshots. Second: Related to your points about intelligence and planning… Closing the Strait is such an obvious response I, a non-military guy nor master strategist, could see this coming as soon as news broke about Operation Epic Misstep.
You open by making a comparison with the war of the Austrian succession. The parallel, if there is one at all, is completely superficial. A comparison between Frederick II of Prussia and Donald Duck is laughable. Even if Frederick was a chancer and improviser (they not a grifter), and maybe fundamentally malign like Putin, he had intellect. I see no evidence that Trump, a shallow buffoon, with enormous power, has any claim to cleverness at all. Quite the reverse.
Frederick managed to hold onto his Kharg Island, after the war of the Austrian succession and the Seven Years War. He had the advantage that Silesia was contiguous to Prussia. Somehow I don’t see Kharg Island becoming an integral part of the United States, do you.
Will Newt retweet this one? Unclear.
You do yourself a deep disservice when you insert quotes alongside references to a letter… a letter that does not contain those quotes, and a person who didn’t use them. It damages your credibility.
I don’t believe it’s antisemitic to point out the that the government of Israel helped convince Trump to start this folly. Is it antisemitic now to ever reference Israel in any negative light? Or to acknowledge that Israel influences American politics, as do many other nations? How much self-censorship is enough??
The rest is good and interesting. But credibility matters, and you wasted much of it with that paragraph.
Maybe we were fucked when we walked away from JCPOA because of Trump's one sided dick measuring contest with Obama and this mess was the inevitable outcome.
Thousands of words on the Iran conflict and a passing mention of Israel indirectly through a baseless accusation of antisemitism.
For shame.
The 48 hours are up.
It is shoving a country from being a "negotiable adversary" into becoming a "fragmented, uncontrollable system."
Donald Trump's ultimatum has expired. The demand was simple: open the Strait of Hormuz, or the power grid gets hit.
In this exact moment, the paradigm shifted.
This is no longer a military operation in the traditional sense.
The target has shifted from "the military" to "the system."
Power, water, energy—assets inherently belonging to civilian life—have now become direct targets of attrition.
Meanwhile, the IRGC's response is equally clear: if you hit our infrastructure, we will hit the energy and water systems of the entire Middle East.
This means one thing—the very structure of the war has changed.
⸻
A fatal, systemic bug has long been embedded in the decision-making models of Western elites:
They blindly believe that if the "economic cost" is stacked high enough, the adversary is bound to yield.
But in Tehran, this formula is void.
The issue is not how high the cost is, but the "cost mismatch."
The IRGC has never been an elected government that buys legitimacy by providing public services. It does not answer to unemployment rates, nor does it bow to inflation. Its base-layer operating system has only two lines of code: the monopoly of resources, and the monopoly of violence.
Therefore, when the power grid is bombed, the water system paralyzed, and the economy goes into shock, the pain and pressure absolutely cannot transmit upward to the nexus of power.
All the suffocation will be ruthlessly trapped at the bottom of society.
Immediately following this, the system will undergo a despairing, counter-intuitive mutation:
The absolute control of power will not weaken; instead, leveraging the state of war, it will become unprecedentedly formidable.
⸻
The collapse of civilian infrastructure cannot shake the IRGC's base.
But it will precisely annihilate another group—
The urban middle class.
The technocrats.
Those who originally possessed organizational capacity, the ones who could potentially reconstruct the state system in the future.
In other words, the missiles raining from the sky did not hit the "existing ruling structure."
What they shattered are "all potential alternatives."
⸻
This is also why the "regime change" pathway that many anticipate is, in reality, highly unrealistic.
What is far more likely to occur is a much more unstable state:
The state remains, but the structure begins to degrade.
Central control may not vanish immediately, but local power will become highly dispersed. Factions within the IRGC will rely more heavily on their respective networks and resource channels; smuggling, black markets, and proxy systems will radically expand.
This is not a rapid, Libya-style collapse.
It is a far more intractable condition—
An existing state gradually devolving into an ungovernable system.
⸻
What does this mean for Hormuz?
It means the very nature of the problem has mutated.
If Iran were a unified, negotiable state, then the blockade would be a problem that could be lifted.
But if control begins to fragment, then a blockade no longer requires a "unified decision."
It only requires sustained uncertainty.
There is no need to completely close the strait.
You merely need to make every single vessel unsure of its own safety.
This, alone, is enough to hand down a death sentence to the global supply chain.
⸻
Therefore, what is truly happening right now is not a simple escalation or de-escalation.
It is a far deeper transformation:
The conflict is transitioning from being "negotiable" to becoming "incapable of convergence."
⸻
Donald Trump’s strategy is to drive up costs to force the adversary to yield.
But the structural nature of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps dictates that costs do not necessarily translate into concessions.
They are far more likely to mutate into something else:
Stronger control,
Higher uncertainty,
And an exponentially harder-to-resolve system.
⸻
This is not fighting a country.
It is shoving a country from being a "negotiable adversary" into becoming a "fragmented, uncontrollable system."
https://chinarbitrageur.substack.com/p/tactical-triumph-strategic-disaster?r=71ctq6&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
As Trump considers sending 3000 from the 82nd Airborne and 2500 Marines…my brief summary of Kharg Island as a hellscape more deadly than Iwo Jima. https://substack.com/@bill575555/note/c-232360977?r=50tspg&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Dismissing the Israeli’s agency, strategic logic, and role in how the US got to this point is limiting the analysis here. No love for Joe Kent, but it’s silly for the podcast to call it beyond the pale to consider Israeli influence and lobbying.
I fear the much larger danger is Israel using a tactical nuke on Iran. Nearly 100% of Israelis support the war. They likely fear existential danger once Iran has a nuclear weapon. To me it seems probable Israel will conclude they must eliminate Iran before Iran eliminates Israel. I recently reread Barbara Tuchman's "Guns of August" detailing the lead up to WWI. Amazing how much miscommunication, personal animosity, ethnocentrism and sheer egotism led to the loss of millions of lives. Yet we learn nothing.
You guys scheme out the many permutations, and I am certain you are exponentially more knowledgeable than I am. But let's step back and consider the fundamentals. First, many, many of Trump's actions have been so destructive to the country I think we need to consider the possibility of kompromat, seriously. Though it is likely Trump has rationalized his behavior and is only dimly if at all, aware of who he's really working for. (Hint: Starts with P and rhymes with gluten.) So, treason or monumental incompetence? Putin's useful idiot. Fueled by grievance, monumentally inconsistent, fatally impulsive, devoid of empathy, compassion, never really loved by his father, he is incapable of love, and thus unable to really understand others. Imprisoned in his personal straight jacket. Not a happy existence. We feel compassion for the anxious and the depressed but loathe the narcissist, the very last person who should wield power. True, the man is extremely dangerous, understandably hated by friends and foes alike. We are right to be afraid of what he might do, he needs to be deposed. But our scorn alone misses the bigger picture.
Slop from a bot
Considering how many of these “military analysis” doom posts I’ve seen lately, I have to assume this is a propaganda campaign.
Re federally-backed insurance: I have heard elsewhere that insurance is not the primary obstacle to getting commercial shipping through the Strait. The backlog of shipbuilding is so great that even if a tanker and its cargo was 100% insured, no carrier would risk the opportunity cost of being short one for several years in a row.
I read 5000 words of Capital Mischief's latest orgasmic war game scenario on the taking and holding of Kharg Island and came away feeling profoundly manipulated. So, I turned to China Talk and hey presto, all is understandable again.
Seems like all of you would Captain a tanker through the strait. Have you seen then number of tankers up in flames that tried that. There are two crude terminals for 98% of Saudi oil. One missile in each ends all shipping. You don't need tankers if you can't fill them. Ras Tanura and Yanbu. Yanbu is covered by Yemen or Iran. Ras Tanura is in the Gulf an will end in Hell's Fire if any attempt is made to move tankers. Sorry, game over.