The most revealing constraint here is not strike capacity but endurance. The United States can mass extraordinary force in the Gulf, yet a prolonged campaign converts tactical superiority into a logistics problem—maintenance cycles, tanker chains, inaccessible ports, crew fatigue. Iran and the Houthis do not need to defeat the fleet symmetrically; they need to keep raising the cost of keeping it there. In prolonged contests, time is not background. It becomes one side’s cheapest weapon.
What if there aren't any more "high value" military targets in Iran? What if there are just heat sensors, maybe in small drones, which can passively track ship movements across the Strait? What if there are just delivery vans scattered across 2,500 square miles of Strait-adjacent land and two guys pop out and launch their drone and then drive on their way? And the drones fly with no radio link to where the ship is projected to be and then use terminal guidance to home in? It would take a lot of U.S. dollars to reliably shoot down several dozen drones, and if they missed one, what would it do to insurance rates?
Steve Jobs said "“The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.” How may you channel this information to modify policy. The Middle East shapes the entire globe and requires successful resolution.
The most revealing constraint here is not strike capacity but endurance. The United States can mass extraordinary force in the Gulf, yet a prolonged campaign converts tactical superiority into a logistics problem—maintenance cycles, tanker chains, inaccessible ports, crew fatigue. Iran and the Houthis do not need to defeat the fleet symmetrically; they need to keep raising the cost of keeping it there. In prolonged contests, time is not background. It becomes one side’s cheapest weapon.
What if there aren't any more "high value" military targets in Iran? What if there are just heat sensors, maybe in small drones, which can passively track ship movements across the Strait? What if there are just delivery vans scattered across 2,500 square miles of Strait-adjacent land and two guys pop out and launch their drone and then drive on their way? And the drones fly with no radio link to where the ship is projected to be and then use terminal guidance to home in? It would take a lot of U.S. dollars to reliably shoot down several dozen drones, and if they missed one, what would it do to insurance rates?
Steve Jobs said "“The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.” How may you channel this information to modify policy. The Middle East shapes the entire globe and requires successful resolution.