From experience, I have to wonder how all my Marines crammed onto those floating tin cans in the Persian Gulf are doing? Think it’s tough here not knowing the situation?
I see you guys edited the transcript to remove the hilariously wrong Iran gdp stat in the first section.
"I saw the report today in Forbes — something like if they did the toll on the toll booth at $2 million a ship, that’s like $9 billion a year at normal transit numbers, which is not chump change. So it would be a victory that potentially hands them an economic win unless we’re going to go back later and actually force the strait and not enforce the tolls. That’s one of the reasons I lean towards Iran is in a materially better place as a regime at the end of this."
The episode said $9B is 60% of their gdp, it's more like 1-2% 😂
The toll is a nice to have but it doesn't matter at all to them other than optics.
Interesting dichotomy with praise for a hugely resource-intensive rescue for a single WSO and criticism of US intolerance for risk.
IMO the effort we put into the rescue and "no soldier left behind" clearly tells the world that we have little or no tolerance for any losses in a war.
it's hard to blame people on the uranium theory considering the administration is consistently unreliable on basic facts when it comes to pretty much anything. they claimed they destroyed the c-130s but then they look like they may have gotten shot down, they landed in isfahan, there hasn't been a good explanation for this stuff (I guess a separate distraction to cover the pilot mission?) so people come up with stories to try and make sense of it
a normal admin would be able to candidly explain the op well enough to make people say "oh ok that makes sense," and lean on press to frame and amplify the rescue in the way you guys describe for auramaxxing purposes. this admin, after venezuela, claimed it was smooth as silk and then had to admit they almost lost a chinook. then some disinfo account on twitter started talking about sonic superweapons and the press secretary shares it and trump gives an interview like "oh yea dude that's real as hell actually. we call it the discombobulator." how can anyone trust anything they say?
this is the downside of flood the zone, if you overwhelm and disorient people as a strategy to distract from bad things you do, they will also tune out good things you do!
The scorecard framing great but the question might be wrong. "Who won?" assumes someone did. The more honest answer is the one Justin almost lands on — that the toll booth is a wasting asset, the messaging destroyed the one genuinely good story (the pilot rescue), and the civilizational threat language validated four decades of regime narrative in a single tweet.
One voice missing from your discussion: Joseph Heller. You can't negotiate with the regime until you've destroyed it, but once you've destroyed it there's no one left to negotiate with. That's not analysis — it's the actual logic operating in plain sight. I tried to follow that thread in a piece this week: https://rajeshachanta.substack.com/p/catch-26
I adore ChinaTalk and listen to every episode, but I skip every episode of Second Breakfast/WarTalk.
The conversational dynamic revolves around dunking on the admin. The podcast market for that is hypersaturated, and that's not your comparative advantage.
The U.S. have created conditions for a Forever war, that pits Iran and even Turkey on the side of the Eastern bloc. If the U.S. retreats what does that mean for Israel? This reckless war not only showed U.S. weakness but depleted its weapons. Politico notes Rebuilding will require China's cooperation.
That is, rare earth metals: China has a near total monopoly over the processing of gallium. Trump's meeting with Xi looks gloomy.
Think about it, quoting the Politico article: "Not only do interceptors rely on gallium for accurate threat detection, other heavy rare earth metals like terbium and dysprosium are key components in the missile targeting."
The U.S. bring us an Energy Crisis, likely a global famine (pesticides shortage) and higher inflation. All for showing air superiority is almost meaningless. America's reputation with allies has been decimated and MAGA has turned on Trump.
This isn't just historical, this has accelerated the U.S. losing the global reserve currency and a debt crisis by 5 years or more, in months. Weekly of media censorships of all the damages to U.S. military equipment. Worse than a tragedy, it strengths China's diplomacy and influence all over the world. Israel's brutality makes America look genocidal or supportive of mass-casualty attacks on civilian areas.
From experience, I have to wonder how all my Marines crammed onto those floating tin cans in the Persian Gulf are doing? Think it’s tough here not knowing the situation?
It’s a sad state of the world that the rebrand is so apt and likely to be relevant in the future.
I see you guys edited the transcript to remove the hilariously wrong Iran gdp stat in the first section.
"I saw the report today in Forbes — something like if they did the toll on the toll booth at $2 million a ship, that’s like $9 billion a year at normal transit numbers, which is not chump change. So it would be a victory that potentially hands them an economic win unless we’re going to go back later and actually force the strait and not enforce the tolls. That’s one of the reasons I lean towards Iran is in a materially better place as a regime at the end of this."
The episode said $9B is 60% of their gdp, it's more like 1-2% 😂
The toll is a nice to have but it doesn't matter at all to them other than optics.
Interesting dichotomy with praise for a hugely resource-intensive rescue for a single WSO and criticism of US intolerance for risk.
IMO the effort we put into the rescue and "no soldier left behind" clearly tells the world that we have little or no tolerance for any losses in a war.
it's hard to blame people on the uranium theory considering the administration is consistently unreliable on basic facts when it comes to pretty much anything. they claimed they destroyed the c-130s but then they look like they may have gotten shot down, they landed in isfahan, there hasn't been a good explanation for this stuff (I guess a separate distraction to cover the pilot mission?) so people come up with stories to try and make sense of it
a normal admin would be able to candidly explain the op well enough to make people say "oh ok that makes sense," and lean on press to frame and amplify the rescue in the way you guys describe for auramaxxing purposes. this admin, after venezuela, claimed it was smooth as silk and then had to admit they almost lost a chinook. then some disinfo account on twitter started talking about sonic superweapons and the press secretary shares it and trump gives an interview like "oh yea dude that's real as hell actually. we call it the discombobulator." how can anyone trust anything they say?
this is the downside of flood the zone, if you overwhelm and disorient people as a strategy to distract from bad things you do, they will also tune out good things you do!
Is it China? We keep saying China is “more resilient” to energy shocks. Fair enough. But resilience is not immunity. If oil stays high long enough, does the bill eventually land on Chinese factories, truckers, airlines, and households anyway? Calling it a buffer is wise. Calling it a shield may be a little too Marvel. https://igreaterchina.substack.com/p/from-chokepoints-to-consumption-chinas?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
The scorecard framing great but the question might be wrong. "Who won?" assumes someone did. The more honest answer is the one Justin almost lands on — that the toll booth is a wasting asset, the messaging destroyed the one genuinely good story (the pilot rescue), and the civilizational threat language validated four decades of regime narrative in a single tweet.
One voice missing from your discussion: Joseph Heller. You can't negotiate with the regime until you've destroyed it, but once you've destroyed it there's no one left to negotiate with. That's not analysis — it's the actual logic operating in plain sight. I tried to follow that thread in a piece this week: https://rajeshachanta.substack.com/p/catch-26
RIP Second Breakfast
I adore ChinaTalk and listen to every episode, but I skip every episode of Second Breakfast/WarTalk.
The conversational dynamic revolves around dunking on the admin. The podcast market for that is hypersaturated, and that's not your comparative advantage.
Yes! War Talk!
The U.S. have created conditions for a Forever war, that pits Iran and even Turkey on the side of the Eastern bloc. If the U.S. retreats what does that mean for Israel? This reckless war not only showed U.S. weakness but depleted its weapons. Politico notes Rebuilding will require China's cooperation.
That is, rare earth metals: China has a near total monopoly over the processing of gallium. Trump's meeting with Xi looks gloomy.
Think about it, quoting the Politico article: "Not only do interceptors rely on gallium for accurate threat detection, other heavy rare earth metals like terbium and dysprosium are key components in the missile targeting."
The U.S. bring us an Energy Crisis, likely a global famine (pesticides shortage) and higher inflation. All for showing air superiority is almost meaningless. America's reputation with allies has been decimated and MAGA has turned on Trump.
This isn't just historical, this has accelerated the U.S. losing the global reserve currency and a debt crisis by 5 years or more, in months. Weekly of media censorships of all the damages to U.S. military equipment. Worse than a tragedy, it strengths China's diplomacy and influence all over the world. Israel's brutality makes America look genocidal or supportive of mass-casualty attacks on civilian areas.