What's driving China's reticence to hit back at the US on chips? What could change that calculus? If China does decide to make a move, what segments of the supply chain are most vulnerable?
Regarding pressurizing TSMC and ASML to not fabricate or sell EUV equipment is futile and shortsighted. This will increase China’s resolve to become self reliant and dramatically cut your $400 billion/ year semi conductor sakes to China. Stop interfering in international commerce , you have become an unreliable supplier and every CEO will try to avoid US origin tech. Stop being insecure and work hard and innovate or step out of the way.
The aggressor in SCS is the US trying to create chaos in that region and sell WMD to the ASEAN countries, Taiwan to satiate your military industrial complex.
Regarding trade , the world knows the US is largest offender and is an unreliable supplier since your govt controls the private sector thru entity list , CFIUS, weaponizing the USD.
"In response to a barrage of Chinese trade infractions...the U.S. government implemented a sanctions regime". I think we're being a tad disingenuous here. The semiconductor-related sanctions exist purely to contain Chinese economic/military power relative to America's. This is quite obvious as the above-mentioned 'infractions' weren't even used by the Trump administration to justify the sanction. US foreign-policy apparatchiks have instead jumped onto the above list to present their own justification. It wasn't actually what happened though...
You are also completely ignoring how ineffective they have been so far in limiting Chinese growth. All the IoT/AI advances penciled in for the next 10-20 years rely on the 14/28nm nodes. The Chinese are perfectly capable of de-Americanizing that part of the supply-chain (at all levels: design, manufacturing, software and packaging) by 2025...let alone 2030.
The US hasn't gone full-hog simply because it will gut its own companies' R&D spending if it did. And its allies wouldn't exactly follow such a nuclear option either. The Dutch government may be ok with pressuring ASML to hold-off on EUV sales to SMIC, but they sure as hell won't commit to forcing ASML to halt DUV sales to the ENTIRE Chinese market...
Regarding pressurizing TSMC and ASML to not fabricate or sell EUV equipment is futile and shortsighted. This will increase China’s resolve to become self reliant and dramatically cut your $400 billion/ year semi conductor sakes to China. Stop interfering in international commerce , you have become an unreliable supplier and every CEO will try to avoid US origin tech. Stop being insecure and work hard and innovate or step out of the way.
Stop this BS about China’s treaty of Uighurs ( lie fostered by Adrian Zenz funded by NED) and https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tVmliB0rVIo.
The aggressor in SCS is the US trying to create chaos in that region and sell WMD to the ASEAN countries, Taiwan to satiate your military industrial complex.
Regarding trade , the world knows the US is largest offender and is an unreliable supplier since your govt controls the private sector thru entity list , CFIUS, weaponizing the USD.
"In response to a barrage of Chinese trade infractions...the U.S. government implemented a sanctions regime". I think we're being a tad disingenuous here. The semiconductor-related sanctions exist purely to contain Chinese economic/military power relative to America's. This is quite obvious as the above-mentioned 'infractions' weren't even used by the Trump administration to justify the sanction. US foreign-policy apparatchiks have instead jumped onto the above list to present their own justification. It wasn't actually what happened though...
You are also completely ignoring how ineffective they have been so far in limiting Chinese growth. All the IoT/AI advances penciled in for the next 10-20 years rely on the 14/28nm nodes. The Chinese are perfectly capable of de-Americanizing that part of the supply-chain (at all levels: design, manufacturing, software and packaging) by 2025...let alone 2030.
The US hasn't gone full-hog simply because it will gut its own companies' R&D spending if it did. And its allies wouldn't exactly follow such a nuclear option either. The Dutch government may be ok with pressuring ASML to hold-off on EUV sales to SMIC, but they sure as hell won't commit to forcing ASML to halt DUV sales to the ENTIRE Chinese market...
Dan Wang argues in Foreign Affairs that some of the sanctions are actually "boosting Beijing's quest for tech dominance":
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-07-29/chinas-sputnik-moment