I wonder if there’s an “AmericaTalk” where Chinese experts on the U.S. military have been trying to analyze the GOFO ‘purges’ in the DoD over the past year!
Thanks to Jon for the shout-out, and for modeling how to recalibrate a mental model in real time! Following the metaphor, if we want to understand why Xi nuked his own moon, it's useful to recall How the Red Sun Rose. The Yan’an Rectification Campaign remains an instructive parallel for the current purge.
This also connects to the podcast’s discussion of the external environment as a consideration. Mao was similarly attentive to external conditions—Japan, the KMT, and especially the Soviet Union—and carefully plotted and timed the Rectification when these actors were distracted or constrained. There is an analogue here.
A truly thought-provoking episode! It’s prompted me to consider writing one more piece to refine and extend my earlier PLA series.
Pixy, can you expand a little on the Yan'an rectification campaign parallel? Mao purged the "internationalists" who were his primarily rivals for power, but there's no obvious rival for Xi in the party-state apparatus - certainly not Zhang. Assuming Zhang did not commit literal treason, it seems to me that Xi had no obvious motive to purge him the way that Mao felt the need to purge Wang Ming.
But, the observation that Mao took the chance to purge the party when his external enemies were all distracted is quite apt. It does seem like Xi to make an aggressive move when he perceives the external environment is favorable (thinking back to the tech and education crackdown when China seemed to be riding high in 2021).
This is my reply to Lucy Hornby’s similar question: “The analogy here is more about how leaders assess conditions, ride the momentum, pick their battles, prioritize and execute. I’ll try to elaborate in a follow-up piece.
And there is no organized opposing faction in Chinese politics today. Yet the perception matters more.”
Politics as a whole is about social and class relations, not personalities. I'm not sure if you all understand that basic point, and if you don't, I'm not sure if you can understand any country, but especially a country where Marxism is the state ideology.
If you show me that you have read Capital Vol 1--a basic requirement for understanding any country, but especially a country where Marxism is the state ideology--I will gladly provide that analysis, knowing that it will be understood.
Investing things, what if I wants to hang onto his legacy of growth without the shame of a possibly long, costly and failed conflict over Taipei?
Change and his boys, not having seen the work they have trained for, see very shortly as the only window to take the island across the otherside of the straights.
There is always the biased perspective that we take from the strongest opponent in a potential conflict. However, as we are all aware, China has a very fixed governance model.
If China potentially has a right to Taipei due to history, it might be thought by China at some level that Taipei has an equal and opposite right to China due to the same history.
Taipei only would need to send ideology across the straights to succeed, no bombs, boats or soldiers, just some ideas that it already has.
If this is the case, Taipei is potentially much more powerful and thus a bigger threat than many commentators are discussing.
How many more years will it be for Taipei to become a fortress with AI manned defenses that can spot, target and eliminate threats before they even arrive on land.
Meanwhile, and citizen of China facing socioeconomic hardship that has been to Taipei (or similar country) becomes a trojan horse.
What if Zhang understands that time is nothing out for a conventional military and wants to move sooner rather than later.
We always believe the big dog wants war. If you are the big dog, everyone needs to believe and fear this. But what if you have done your bit and you want a legacy in the Chinese history books who did more great than... failed miserably.
Put in runs that very real risk. Xi would be unwise to start something he doesn't already know the result of.
If that's true then China should support Taiwanese independence, since it essentially eliminates Taiwan as an alternative governance model to the people in China.
Don't forget that the DPP's ultimate goal is not just independence, but the elimination of Chinese identity in Taiwan.
I wonder if there’s an “AmericaTalk” where Chinese experts on the U.S. military have been trying to analyze the GOFO ‘purges’ in the DoD over the past year!
lol the english language version is called Second Breakfast
Thanks to Jon for the shout-out, and for modeling how to recalibrate a mental model in real time! Following the metaphor, if we want to understand why Xi nuked his own moon, it's useful to recall How the Red Sun Rose. The Yan’an Rectification Campaign remains an instructive parallel for the current purge.
This also connects to the podcast’s discussion of the external environment as a consideration. Mao was similarly attentive to external conditions—Japan, the KMT, and especially the Soviet Union—and carefully plotted and timed the Rectification when these actors were distracted or constrained. There is an analogue here.
A truly thought-provoking episode! It’s prompted me to consider writing one more piece to refine and extend my earlier PLA series.
Pixy, can you expand a little on the Yan'an rectification campaign parallel? Mao purged the "internationalists" who were his primarily rivals for power, but there's no obvious rival for Xi in the party-state apparatus - certainly not Zhang. Assuming Zhang did not commit literal treason, it seems to me that Xi had no obvious motive to purge him the way that Mao felt the need to purge Wang Ming.
But, the observation that Mao took the chance to purge the party when his external enemies were all distracted is quite apt. It does seem like Xi to make an aggressive move when he perceives the external environment is favorable (thinking back to the tech and education crackdown when China seemed to be riding high in 2021).
This is my reply to Lucy Hornby’s similar question: “The analogy here is more about how leaders assess conditions, ride the momentum, pick their battles, prioritize and execute. I’ll try to elaborate in a follow-up piece.
And there is no organized opposing faction in Chinese politics today. Yet the perception matters more.”
Politics as a whole is about social and class relations, not personalities. I'm not sure if you all understand that basic point, and if you don't, I'm not sure if you can understand any country, but especially a country where Marxism is the state ideology.
would love to hear this purge explained in the context of social and class relations
If you show me that you have read Capital Vol 1--a basic requirement for understanding any country, but especially a country where Marxism is the state ideology--I will gladly provide that analysis, knowing that it will be understood.
Nice excuse.
non-Marxists used Weber as a cudgel against us for 70 years. Now they don't even read Weber.
You might be mistaken.
Some people don't know how to quit at the top. Or maybe they are not allowed to?
https://www.youtube.com/live/95AyrNmoEYg?si=-KHuqFyOMR4hmVBi
It seems you have extremely good imagination
on Chinese politics and military operations. This is a good story but it’s all hypothetical crap that you guys have made up.
Talk about 📽ing.
Investing things, what if I wants to hang onto his legacy of growth without the shame of a possibly long, costly and failed conflict over Taipei?
Change and his boys, not having seen the work they have trained for, see very shortly as the only window to take the island across the otherside of the straights.
There is always the biased perspective that we take from the strongest opponent in a potential conflict. However, as we are all aware, China has a very fixed governance model.
If China potentially has a right to Taipei due to history, it might be thought by China at some level that Taipei has an equal and opposite right to China due to the same history.
Taipei only would need to send ideology across the straights to succeed, no bombs, boats or soldiers, just some ideas that it already has.
If this is the case, Taipei is potentially much more powerful and thus a bigger threat than many commentators are discussing.
How many more years will it be for Taipei to become a fortress with AI manned defenses that can spot, target and eliminate threats before they even arrive on land.
Meanwhile, and citizen of China facing socioeconomic hardship that has been to Taipei (or similar country) becomes a trojan horse.
What if Zhang understands that time is nothing out for a conventional military and wants to move sooner rather than later.
We always believe the big dog wants war. If you are the big dog, everyone needs to believe and fear this. But what if you have done your bit and you want a legacy in the Chinese history books who did more great than... failed miserably.
Put in runs that very real risk. Xi would be unwise to start something he doesn't already know the result of.
Just a thought.
If that's true then China should support Taiwanese independence, since it essentially eliminates Taiwan as an alternative governance model to the people in China.
Don't forget that the DPP's ultimate goal is not just independence, but the elimination of Chinese identity in Taiwan.
The KMT is even moreso a puppet of the CCP. What a disapponting situation.
Imagining Terry Pegula’s assistant getting a Google Alert for his name and being very very confused