Best of Late
ChinaTalk, distilled
Jordan is in Tel Aviv for the next two weeks. It would be fun to do a meet up if there’s a critical mass! Respond to this email to connect.
We’ve recently published the 400th episode of the ChinaTalk podcast, and we’re doing a Q&A to celebrate. Submit your questions in the comments below.
Best Podcasts
Inside the Soviet Cold War Machine
Sergey Radchenko’s To Run the World explores the Cold War not as a clash of ideologies, but as a tragic and often absurd contest for prestige, legitimacy, and recognition among insecure leaders struggling to validate their power, both externally and at home. In this interview, Radchenko argues that authoritarian regimes, especially the USSR and China, pursued global influence to compensate for internal weakness.
Part two came out in April, and it’s even better than part one! In this deep-dive, Radchenko unravels how personal egos and the battle for international prestige shaped Soviet decision-making — from Khrushchev’s downfall to Brezhnev’s Vietnam gamble, the paranoid Sino-Soviet split, Nixon’s unlikely détente, and the disastrous invasion of Afghanistan. This episode asks the question, what if boredom, not grand strategy, is what starts wars?
Allied Scale and Net Assessment with Rush Doshi
This interview with Rush Doshi explores how the U.S. should strategically compete with China by leveraging partnerships with allies. While China faces real challenges like demographics and debt, Doshi argues that China’s scale, manufacturing dominance, and industrial capacity pose enduring strategic threats. He critiques both the Biden and Trump approaches to alliances: Biden’s overemphasis on persuasion and Trump’s heavy-handed use of coercion. Instead, Doshi emphasizes the need for capacity-centric statecraft, where allies help each other build economic, technological, and military strength.
EMERGENCY EDITION: Trump's Pivot to Putin + AGI and the Future of War
Defense analyst and Economist columnist Shashank Joshi alongside former Pentagon official Michael Horowitz explore the future of war. So much talk online around AI and national security flattens out to “AGI is a nuclear bomb, the first to get there wins” that it was a real treat to get to explore a richer vision of the future with two true experts. I want to point you in particular toward the second half of the episode, where we explore the Pentagon’s bureaucratic inertia, the potential for AI to reshape warfare, and the possibility that an adversary launches a first strike on the eve of AGI.
I’m hoping to expand on this show with an interview series exploring AI’s impact on national security. Too often today, debates center on “superweapons” lazily pattern-matched to the nuclear era or go in circles on cyber offense vs defense. The goal instead is to repeat the exercise Dario did for biotech in Machines of Loving Grace: deeply explore the bottlenecks and potential futures across domains like autonomy, decision-support, stealth, electronic warfare, robotics, and missile defense. Guests will be engineers and technologists who can also explore second-order operational and strategic impacts.
But this needs a sponsor in order to happen! If you work at an AI firm, defense tech, VC, university or think tank and want to help facilitate the best conversations about the future of warfare, please reach out to jordan@chinatalk.media.
China AI
Is China Racing to AGI?
This article explores whether China is truly racing toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) by staging a debate between two perspectives: the Believer, who argues that China is committed to beating the US to AGI, and the Skeptic, who contends that China’s focus remains on practical, application-driven AI development rather than AGI moonshots. While China has prioritized AI in general, the article argues that China's fragmented AI ecosystem, bureaucratic caution, and investor risk-aversion could disincentivize transformative superintelligence-focused research.
DeepSeek and Destiny: A National Vibe Shift
This guest post by Afra is a must-read. The rise of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has ignited a nationwide wave of techno-cultural euphoria, reawakening the traditional concept of Guóyùn (國運) — the belief in a nation’s destiny. Viewed as both a technological milestone and a symbol of China’s long-awaited ascension, DeepSeek has become a focal point for patriotic pride after the trauma of COVID-19. As state rhetoric, popular culture, and grassroots sentiment converge around national destiny, DeepSeek's story reveals how technology in China is never just utilitarian — it is deeply entwined with myth-making, nationalism, and a collective need to prove that China’s time has finally come.
Manus: A DeepSeek Moment?
In this podcast discussion, Rohit Krishnan, Shawn Wang, and (now White House official!) Dean Ball analyze the potential of AI agents and the degree to which Manus matters overall. Unlike the research-heavy ethos of Western labs, Manus reflects a pragmatic, product-focused approach, prioritizing functionality over grand AGI visions. The conversation explores why Western AI giants have lagged in building compelling agents, citing safety concerns and regulatory risk aversion.
We also took a look in an article at Manus’ founder. Founded by pragmatic serial entrepreneur Xiao Hong and prodigy Ji Yichao, Monica evolved from a browser plugin into an AI agent business focused on product-market fit and international expansion, eschewing grand AGI ambitions in favor of practical use cases and aggressive data collection. With a flashy invite-only launch, Manus positions itself as a user-friendly, multilingual AI tool targeting overseas markets — a strategic move amid geopolitical tensions and growing scrutiny of Chinese tech.
Tariffs
How the Drive for Autarchy Caused WWII
In this sweeping conversation from the ChinaTalk archives, historian Nick Mulder explains how the obsession with national self-sufficiency fueled the economic insecurities that led to World War II. From the League of Nations’ failed sanctions on Italy to the Nazi quest for “raw materials freedom” and Japan’s desperate turn to war after facing an ABCD (America, Britain, China, Dutch East Indies) embargo, the episode shows how economic pressure, when mishandled, can backfire and accelerate conflict.
MAGA: A Guide for the Perplexed with Tanner Greer
In this podcast episode, Tanner Greer analyzes the chaotic dynamics of Trump’s second administration, particularly its approach to China and global trade. Greer explains Trump’s unpredictable decision-making style, his use of internal factional conflict as a management tool, and the administration's disjointed tariff policies. The conversation explores four quadrants of Trump World ideology and how adherents of each quadrant approach trade, industrial policy, and Taiwan.
Dylan Breaks Huawei and Tariffs Right
In this podcast, Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis outlines a smarter semiconductor tariff policy aimed at boosting US manufacturing, moving supply chains out of China, and increasing America’s capital-intensive domestic production. This podcast also includes discussion from Dylan and Doug O’Laughlin about how Huawei is successfully circumventing US export controls by leveraging its vertical integration, supply chain workarounds, and large-scale system engineering.
Are We Cooked?
In this podcast, Peter Harrell, Kevin Xu, and Matt Klein discuss the chaotic implementation of Trump's new tariffs, the damage they’ll cause to international alliances, and the broader risks of US governance failures. The conversation explores the interaction between structural American strengths — innovation, entrepreneurship, and private R&D — and damage from erratic policymaking, attacks on the rule of law, and capricious foreign policy. The guests cautiously conclude that America is not yet “cooked,” though the heat is rising.
Trump's Semis Trade Policy
This CSIS Chip Chat episode explores the conflicting goals of Trump’s semiconductor tariff strategy. Bill Reinsch and Jay Goldberg highlight how poorly coordinated tariffs risk undermining enforcement of semiconductor manufacturing equipment controls, inadvertently benefit Chinese chip firms, and alienate allies needed for collective action.
Export Controls and Chinese Compute Infrastructure
Why China's Cloud Lags
This article by JS Tan analyzes why China’s cloud computing sector lags behind the US, despite massive investments from tech giants like Alibaba. While Chinese cloud providers have built extensive low-margin Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) capacity, they struggle with the high-value Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) offerings that drive profitability in the US. Factors such as low enterprise IT spending, cheap labor, a weak enterprise software ecosystem, and the absence of professional IT consulting services hinder China’s cloud adoption beyond basic functions. Additionally, state-owned enterprises dominate China’s cloud landscape, prioritizing strategic control over compute capacity rather than developing profitable software services.
Mapping China's HBM Advances
This article by Ray Wang examines China's accelerating progress in high-bandwidth memory development, focusing on CXMT's narrowing gap with global leaders like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. Despite US export controls aiming to restrict China's AI capabilities by targeting HBM supply chains, CXMT is now only 3-4 years behind in HBM technology. China's cloud and AI sectors, especially firms like Huawei, drive demand for advanced HBM, pushing CXMT to leapfrog into higher-value technologies. While CXMT’s still faces major obstacles, its rapid progress could reshape market dynamics, especially within China, and pressure global memory players on pricing, even if technological parity remains elusive.
Chinese AI Will Match America's, But Will That Matter?
While China may achieve AI model parity with the US in 2025, this article argues that America’s real advantage lies in its vastly superior compute capacity, which enables broad economic integration, innovation, and global AI leadership. Despite setbacks like TSMC's illicit chip production for Huawei, US export controls have successfully slowed China's AI progress by raising costs and limiting scale. The author contends that US policymakers should focus less on temporary model comparisons and more on leveraging compute dominance for sustained technological and economic leadership, warning against complacency and policy missteps that could squander this critical edge.
Ban the H20: Competing in the Inference Age
This article argued that China's AI ecosystem, long hampered by fragmented infrastructure, is increasingly well-positioned to dominate in an inference-heavy era, thanks to access to inference-optimized chips like NVIDIA’s H20, stockpiles of older GPUs, domestic alternatives like Huawei’s Ascend 910C, and major advances in inference efficiency. Evidently, the call to ban the H20 reached the right person, and the Trump administration has since cracked down on China-bound H20 exports.
Chinese Industry
Unitree CEO on China's Robot Revolution
In this translated interview, Unitree Robotics CEO Wang Xingxing lays out a bold, techno-optimist vision for the future of humanoid robots, predicting they will transform every industry within our lifetime — from manufacturing and construction to healthcare and even environmental restructuring at the microscopic level. While dismissing large language models as insufficient for robotics, Wang anticipates a breakthrough in general-purpose AI models tailored for robots by the end of 2025. He discusses Unitree’s competitive edge and the strengths of China’s domestic supply chains for manufacturing cost-effective robots. Despite skepticism toward Silicon Valley hype, Wang remains confident in China’s potential to lead the humanoid revolution, citing a rapid pace of development, youthful entrepreneurial energy, and abundant capital inflows.
Humanoid Robots: The Long Road Ahead
In this Q&A with Angela Shen, robotics PhD “KL Divergence” outlines the challenges and future trajectory of humanoid robotics, emphasizing that true viability hinges on achieving a “data flywheel” where robots deployed in real-world settings collect diverse, high-quality data to train better models. Industrial applications like logistics and manufacturing will likely see robots first, while home use remains at least a decade away. This article discusses what it will take to succeed in the humanoid robot race — as the field rapidly evolves, companies must navigate tough trade-offs between making robots in-house versus partnering, and focus on amassing the data, talent, and infrastructure that will ultimately determine long-term advantage.
Pharma Access with Chinese Characteristics
Angela Shen investigates China’s pharmaceutical landscape as it undergoes major government-led reform. Through programs like the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) and centralized volume-based procurement (CVBP), authorities have dramatically slashed drug prices, yet concerns about the quality and effectiveness of low-cost generics persist. Corruption and inefficiencies remain endemic, while access to cutting-edge imported drugs is still limited, partly due to Beijing’s protectionist tilt toward local firms. As China’s disease burden shifts toward chronic and complex conditions, its ambitious vision of “Healthy China 2030” hinges on whether it can deliver innovative treatments through a system strained by economic and political pressures.
WWIII
Nuclearization
In this interview, Vipin Narang, Pranay Vaddi, and Junichi Fukuda explores how the Trump administration’s approach to alliances is shaking the foundations of America’s nuclear umbrella. They discuss America’s historical role in preventing ally proliferation, and analyze the “hardware” (military capability) and “software” (political will) components of deterrence. While hardware investments continue, allies like Japan, South Korea, and Poland are increasingly hedging against perceived US retrenchment. China's rapid nuclear expansion compounds these fears. The panel warns that allied proliferation would weaken U.S. security, destabilize the global order, and risk entangling the US in unwanted conflicts.
Industrial Policy and Grand Strategy
Rickover’s Lessons
This article by Charles Yang highlights the enduring relevance of Admiral Hyman Rickover’s approach to industrial leadership. Rickover, known as the “Father of the Nuclear Navy,” spearheaded the development of nuclear propulsion through a hands-on, deeply technical, and unorthodox management style that emphasized personal responsibility, rigorous training, and relentless oversight. His success lay not just in technological breakthroughs but in building a resilient industrial ecosystem.
Manufacturing’s Missing Revolution
Despite early hype, the US has largely failed to realize the promise of the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT). In this article, Gary Wang argues that the IIoT “revolution” faltered not due to a lack of technology, but because of deep coordination failures. IIoT is a patchwork of technologies requiring complex integration across connectivity, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and machine learning — a challenge the free market struggles to solve alone. While US manufacturers remain stuck in pilot projects, China has leapfrogged ahead by using top-down industrial policy to address technical bottlenecks and platform fragmentation, enabling broad adoption of automation and AI in “dark factories.” Wang warns that similar challenges threaten US leadership in AI and quantum computing, and calls for industrial policy that supports entire ecosystems, not just headline-grabbing tech — before the US falls even further behind.
How to Build Compute in America
As US demand for AI computing infrastructure surges, a looming bottleneck in power generation threatens to stall progress. This podcast explores the challenges in energy, permitting, and financing for scaling America’s AI infrastructure. Arnab Datta, Tim Fist, and Ben Della Rocca also discuss the promise of next-generation geothermal energy as a power solution alongside gas and solar, as well as fusion and small modular reactors in the long term.
How to Compete
In this podcast episode, “Tony Stark,” author of Breaking Beijing and Ex Supra, discusses what the US must prioritize to compete with China throughout each decade of the 21st century. Stark critiques Washington's lack of a coherent China strategy and warns that without decisive action, the US risks strategic drift while China expands its global influence and military capabilities. The conversation also explores how AI will change warfare, how foreign aid supports U.S. security interests, why literacy and education are critical to military effectiveness, and how thoughtful, independent writing can shape policy discourse.
Weapons of Cold War 2.0 + 'People's War' Invasion Fleet
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/cold-war-20-tools-peoples-war-invasion
In this installment of Friday Bites, Kyle Chan argues that the US-China conflict is a full-scale cold war, not just a trade war, encompassing economic, technological, military, and ideological competition. Both sides are wielding a range of tools — from tariffs to cyberattacks and supply chain disruptions — without clear escalation dominance, as each action inevitably harms both parties due to deep economic interdependence. In the second half, Joseph Webster argues that Taiwan is unprepared to confront an invasion assisted by civilian ships armed with drone fleets, and suggests ways to get serious about national defense.
Media mentions
Jordan and Angela Shen coauthored an opinion piece in the Washington Post, entitled “Trump’s crackdown on foreign students is a gift to China.”
Jordan had a ton of fun on TBPN discussing business in China, Deepseek, and the search for truth:
That was way too fun so I went in for a second time, not too happy about Trump’s S&T policy.
I also went on CNBC to discuss export controls and chip smuggling.
Finally, ChinaTalk got a shout-out in FTSG’s report on tech trends in 2025 as a “pioneer and power player.”